• S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-26-12

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • Europe is trading in mixed fashion ranging from -0.5% up to +0.2%. 
  • Asian markets traded 0.9% higher. 
  • US futures are trading slightly higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ICSC Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence INdex (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Minor sell-off on Friday took us below the trend-line off of the November lows.
    • Not a major concern at this point. More of a flattening of existing trend-line. 
  • We did drop below the 8-day EMA but that is not a big concern since that has happened before without consequence. 
  • I am more concerned with us staying above the 20-day moving average. 
  • Declining, overhead resistance exists off of the September highs. To break this, SPX will need to clear 1445. 
  • Volume was non-existent was no surprise on Christmas eve. 
  • Will see continued low levels of volume from now  until the end of the year. 
  • For this market to turn decisively bearish, we need a close below 1411. 
  • The thought is, if the House can’t pass their own Plan B, how will it ever pass a compromise between between Boehner and Obama. 
  • VIX is closing in on 18 closing at 17.84 for a second straight day. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-26-12

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