Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 1.6% higher.
  • European markets are trading 0.5% lower. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • A slight bit of follow through from the SPX on Friday, and taking us back into short-term overbought status for the market. 
  • Once we become overbought on the SPX, we tend to stay there for quite a while. 
  • Also saw the dip buyers come in at the highs and make sure the SPX closed in positive territory. 
  • Ideally, any selling pressures that we might see today, needs to 'preferably' hold 1700-1701. But what should be considered absolutely critical is the 1671-1676 level. 
  • The steepness of the current trend-line has rising support at 1697. But I don't consider that support of major consequence.
  • The weekly chart shows a market that has risen 5 out of the last 6 weeks. Very Bullish. 
  • There is little, and I mean almost no reason to be short this market right now. None. Not with the Fed's policy or until that changes. 
  • When we crossed 1600, the SPX ran non-stop all the way up to 1686 before pulling back.
  • 1676 is a very key level for this market in the case of a sell-off. That would create a new lower-low. 
  • May and July saw strong beginning of the months. Let's see if it continues with August. 
  • VIX dropped into the 11's. 
  • 30-minute chart continues the upward climb with a new higher-high. 
  • I remain a buyer in this market. The opportunities to swing short are far too unpredictable, choosing to focus on the long side is the best way to manage risk and maximize profits at this juncture. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

 

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