• SP 500 Market Analysis 11-17-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Yesterday’s bounce was significant in many ways.
  • First, it came off of the price level where the market broke out of the double bottom base it had been in. That base breakout level held perfectly.
  • Secondly, the bounce coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
  • Now, today, the market must follow through to the upside to validate the move as being much more than just a dead cat bounce, but a bounce that has intentions of making a move back towards its all time highs again.  
  • SPX could be setting up, after the eight day pullback, for a rally to close out the year. Getting past the declining resistance off of the May highs will be absolutely key to the sustainability of this current market bounce/rally.
  • Oil will likely need to find a bottom to its recent selling, if this market is going to continue rallying off of yesterday’s gains.
  • SPY volume was less than what we saw on Friday, but still was at average levels.
  • VIX dropped 9.5% to close at 18.16 yesterday, but will need to drop back below 16.77 to nullify the base break out of VIX from last week.
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) bounced off of its rising trend-line off of the September lows. It was a major move of 21.2% to close at 46.2%.
  • 50-day moving average underneath current price action and rising on SPX at 2010.
  • A flat-line 200-day moving average will offer some resistance today at 2064.
  • A rate hike is expected out of December’s Fed meeting. However, I still would not be surprised if the Fed backed out of raising rates yet again. They’ve been doing just that for years now. 


My Trades:

  • Added two new long positions to the portfolio yesterday.  
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long positions today if this market bounce holds.
  • Sold EA yesterday at $69.76 for a 3.2% loss.
  • 50% Long / 50% Cash
  • Remain long: FDX at $157.91, MSFT at $53.88, UPRO at $62.00 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11-17-15

 

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