Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.6% lower.   
  • Asian markets traded in a wide/mixed range, from -1.6% up to +1.9%. 
  • US futures are flat ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Consumer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status (11am) 

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite being up nicely on the day, SPX reversed 25 point to finish notably lower on the day, yet again. 
  • Price action over the last 6 days has left the market overextended to the downside and about 75 points lower since the election. 
  • Looking at the weekly chart, we’ve typically bounced after testing the lower bollinger band on the weekly chart, which is currently at 1341, and is my target for a bounce – just like we did on 6/1. 
  • Market remains fixed in oversold territory, and setting up for a Thanksgiving bounce next week (typically bullish for trading). 
  • After trading in a well defined declining channel, the selling accelerated yesterday, by breaking through the declining resistance level. 
  • Price Support  at 1355 was broken as well. 
  • If there is a rally in the coming days, I’d look for 1404 to be targeted resistance. 
  • Last time we broke through the 200-day SMA, it led to a major sell-off in August 2011 that lasted through early October of that same year. 
  • 30-min chart shows a breakdown in price as well. 
  • VIX shot up to just a shade below 18. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Covered LULU at $68.00 from $70.00 for a 2.9% gain. 
  • Sold MLNX at $83.51 from $86.45 for a -3.4% loss. 
  • Covered INVN at $10.79 from $11.31 for a 4.6% gain
  • Shorted CLNE at $12.88
  • Remain short Short SODA at $35.69, HOLX at $20.16 and  CAKE at $33.26.
  • Will watch today’s action and look to cover 1-2 of my shorts on any major sell-off. 

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 11-15-12

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