Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.7% higher.
  • European markets traded 0.3% higher. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): FOMC Meeting Begins, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), Redbook (8:55), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9), Consumer Confidence (10), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Yesterday represented another day in which the market pushed lower, only to rally and recover much of those losses by the close. 
  • The SPY daily chart shows a doji. Essentially, with the market consolidating near the highs, and unable to sell-off the more likely the bulls are simply priming itself to launch higher. 
  • The one thing that has been near certain in this market over the last 3 days are the dip buyers consistently supporting and pushing the market off of the lows each day. 
  • We continue to see the typical light summer volume levels. 
  • So far the new trend-line off of the 6/24 lows connects its first higher-low with Friday's price action. This could change, but that is what we are working with at this point. 
  • SPX has pulled back off of short-term overbought conditions that it had been in since 7/8. 
  • Consolidation continues to be the pattern the market is in since 7/12. A push above 1698 will change that for sure. 
  • VIX popped on yesterday's weakness to close in the 13's. 
  • Inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the SPX  30-minute chart. 
  • Yesterday marketed the first time in July that the SPX closed below the 10-day moving average. 
  • I remain a buyer in this market. The opportunities to swing short are far too unpredictable, choosing to focus on the long side is the best way to manage risk and maximize profits at this juncture. 
  • With the consolidation at the highs, I think it is only a matter of time before we break the 1700 price level .
  • Interestingly enough, the SPX seems to also be finding support at the 1587ish level which represents the previous highs that the market reached back on 5/22. 
  • If we see any significant amount of selling today, you will want to watch the 1671-2 level as a significant short-term support level. Break below it, and you likely have a much heavier sell-off at hand. 
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I'm curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added  WHR at 130.74 yesterday. 
  • Added XEC at 75.50 yesterday. 
  • Current Longs: APO at 26.86, ASML at 89.63, RCI at 40.65, HRB at 30.19, SJM at 104.63, BDX at 99.98, GOOG at 887.47
  • BDX will probably be sold today with earnings being tomorrow. I'm not overly crazy about adding a lot of new positions to the portfolio. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

 

You Might Like

  • The Retail Trading Revolution: How Small Investors Are Reshaping the Stock Market

  • Fading the Gap: How Large Overnight Moves in SPY and QQQ Play Out During the Trading Day

  • How to Trade a Bear Flag