• SP 500 Market Analysis 4-19-13

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.4% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 1.0% higher.
  • US futures are moderately higher ahead of the bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): No news

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • We sold off yesterday for the fourth time in the last five days. 
  • We broke below the 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time since 12/28/12. 
  • More importantly we broke the long-term channel that we had been trading in since the November 2011 lows. 
  • Even more interestingly, we tested the lower Bollinger band yesterday and bounced, after having outside the upper band just 5 days earlier. 
  • 1538 is the KEY level for me today. We break 1538 and there is no support until we get under 1500. 
  • Today’s gap higher is nothing to get excited about from a bullish perspective, particularly since we have dropped off of the highs quite a bit. 
  • The dip buying has been non-existent of late. 
  • VIX continues to trend higher, now above 17. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-19-13

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