Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.4% lower.
- Asian markets traded mixed and 0.5% higher.
- US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Solid bounce back yesterday, though the Russell really was a huge drag on the market.
- Volume picked up ever so slightly.
- By pushing higher yesterday, the SPX held the breakout level achieved on Thursday, and shows every sign that it is willing to march forward.
- Continue to watch the 20-day moving average as the SPX has managed to trade above it every day since 2/27. For now it should help with gauging this market’s short-term direction.
- We are close to trading outside the upper Bollinger Band.
- We continue to hover in overbought conditions.
- It should be assumed that the uptrend has been resumed.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- VIX fell back into the 12’s.
- I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time.
- Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading.
- Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Bought DISH at 38.23 yesterday.
- Stopped out of GG at $32.73 for a -2.4% loss.
- Remain Long BWLD at $86.53, AAP at $81.66, SODA at $50.30
- Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there.
- Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance
Chart for SPX:

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