Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.4% lower.
  • Asian markets traded mixed and 0.5% higher.
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Solid bounce back yesterday, though the Russell really was a huge drag on the market. 
  • Volume picked up ever so slightly. 
  • By pushing higher yesterday, the SPX held the breakout level achieved on Thursday, and shows every sign that it is willing to march forward. 
  • Continue to watch the 20-day moving average as the SPX has managed to trade above it every day since 2/27. For now it should help with gauging this market’s short-term direction. 
  • We are close to trading outside the upper Bollinger Band. 
  • We continue to hover in overbought conditions. 
  • It should be assumed that the uptrend has been resumed. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • VIX fell back into the 12’s. 
  • I don’t recommend using market bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions at this time. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Bought DISH at 38.23 yesterday. 
  • Stopped out of GG at $32.73 for a -2.4% loss. 
  • Remain Long BWLD at $86.53, AAP at $81.66, SODA at $50.30
  • Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 4-03-13

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