Pre-market update (updated 9:00am eastern):

  • Europe is trading -0.5% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded -0.6% lower. 
  • US futures are slightly lower.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), New Home Sales (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Beige Book (2pm)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • The S&P 500 pulled back yesterday after Senator Harry Reid gave some dismal remarks regarding the fiscal cliff discussions. 
  • Action from the past three days almost has the look of an evening star formation. Regardless, the price action during that time period doesn’t appear favorable. 
  • Resistance at the 1410 level continue to be problematic for the bulls. Third straight day that the SPX has been unable to push through it. 
  • Short-term, a break below Monday’s lows, should accelerate the pace of selling for the bears. 
  • Price action still trading outside of the downward channel it previously was in. 
  • We are facing a minor gap heading into the open, and I urge traders to be careful, as it often times leads to an upside reversal at some point after the first hour of trading. 
  • In general, I’m finding that there are a lot of mixed signals, so the best advice is to let the market confirm direction on its own and not front run the market as a result. 
  • SPX remains well overbought on the short-term time frame. On the long-term time frame, SPX is no longer oversold, like it had been prior to last week. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator shows a strong possibility for a Santa Rally
  • After 1410, look for the next level of resistance to kick in around 1437. 
  • Despite the strong rally of late, the SPX failed to make a higher-high. As a result, I’d view this market with skepticism, until proven otherwise. 
  • SPX currently has recaptured the 10, 20, and 200-day moving averages. 
  • 30-minute chart shows the potential for a breakdown. 
  • VIX is just a shade below 16. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

shareplanner reversal indicator 11-28-12