• SP 500 Market Analysis 6-13-13

Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 1.0% lower. 
  • Asian markets traded -3.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading slightly higher.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Retail Sales (8:30am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Business Inventories (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX closed right on the rising uptrend, which makes today absolutely necessary for the market to bounce. That rising trend-line today now becomes 1615 today. 
  • Volume has picked back up after a weak Monday showing.
  • That Monday candle is what bothers me most of all. It could very well be a lower-high in the market. 
  • SPX also tested the 50-day day moving average for the second time in the last 5 trading sessions – both times the MA has held strong. 
  • Along with Monday’s highs, watch, last Thursday’s lows and a break of either will define the market’s direction going forward.
  • VIX closed as high as we’ve seen since 2/25/13 at 18.59. 
  • Since 5/22 the market has finished in the red 10 out of the last 15 times – which is the greatest amount of bearishness we’ve seen this year. 
  • Strong correlation between US Market’s and the Japanese markets right now, as the latter is in the midst of a significant sell-off since 5/22. 
  • There is the potential that Monday’s highs marked the first lower-high of 2013. 
  • The tendency is to want to get short heavily here, I would advise against it, and wouldn’t rule out the possibility that all of this blows over and the buyers eventually regain interest in this market. 
  • The 30 minute chart on SPX continues toi chop around.
  • Key price support rests at 1601. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-13-13

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