Technical Outlook:

  • Yesterday, S&P 500 (SPX) sold off for the fifth straight day with a dive in the final minutes of trading. 
  • Despite trading lower for 5 straight days and 7 out of the last 8 days, the S&P 500 is only down 18 points, or less than 1% (2144 down to 2126), which is utterly astounding. More frustrating for the bears is the fact that with all the selling, price still can’t break key support at 2120. 
  • SPX is down for 3 straight months with October finishing firmly in the red. But during this time, SPX has only declined by 2.1%. Remarkable for a 3-month slide. 
  • The last time there was a pullback that declined so little was 1984 where the market pulled back -1.8%.
  • SPY volume saw a huge dip yesterday – coming in well below average, and less than half of the volume seen on Friday. Essentially, the market was totally boring and uninteresting yesterday. 
  • The market is prone to a bounce here, but the election headwinds may make that difficult with Clinton’s continued scandals and problems creating a change in the polls in favor of Trump, which is something that Wall Street has made it well known it doens’t favor. 
  • The election is one week from today, and there will be more and more moves like what we saw on Friday where major moves occur out of nowhere, and is completely unexpected. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIXwas unable to break through the declining trend-line off of the June highs yesterday. 
  • Nasdaq (QQQ) continues to slie and now trades below the 50-day mvoing average for a second straight day. 
  • Massive sell-off yesterday on the United States Oil Fund (USO) that took price back near the rising trend-line from  the February lows. 
  • Russell 2000 Index (IWM) has clearly confirmed the double top from the past few months, and has consequently broken down hard.

My Trades:

  • Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
  • Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Currently 10% Long / 20% Short / 30% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 11 1 16

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