My Trading Plan for April 14, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): HD (37.16), AMGN (53.93), AMLN (11.25), GLW (19.04), BTU (63.75)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 50% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Producer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are moderately lower heading into the open.
• Asian markets were mixed to flat; European markets saw losses average about 1%.
• S&P closed on the 20 and 50-day moving averages at 1314. 
• We’re currently seeing about a 17-point downward channel that the S&P is trading in. Yesterday, the market closed at the upper end of that channel, which if it holds up, would indicate further downside in the market.
• Talk about a double-top quickly gaining steam. Will need to break and close above 1340 to end this discussion. A break below 1249 would confirm the double top.
• Despite the sluggishness the market has exhibited since the beginning of the month, the market has only been able to peel off 1% since 4/1.
• A move below 1300 on the S&P today, would represent a breach of a significant psychological barrier.
• If the selling persists in the days ahead, watch for a break of the trendline off of the 9/1 and 3/16 lows, which would currently reside at 1280.
• The market is now considered oversold in the very short-term.
• S&P Fibonacci retracement levels to watch are 38.2% = 1305, 50% = 1294, 61.8% = 1283.
• The longer-term trend of the market suggests the market is in a state of flux/confusion, with steep sell-offs taking place over the past two months, but no long-term downtrend having been established.
• My conclusion: If the bears were serious about taking this market lower, they should have taken advantage of recent market weakness, for the bulls, hey need to figure out a way to attract new buyers to help us get out of this consolidating state.

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Added GLW, BTU, and AMLN to the portfolio yesterday.
• Scalped SSO yet again for a quick 0.75% profit
• Kept all five positions in the portfolio today.
• Should the market bounce off of these lows, I’ll look to book profits off of the bounce. If not, I’ll be playing out my current stop-losses.
• I’ll continue to place a lot emphasis on how oil performs throughout the course of the trading session.
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas (as well as everyone else’s).