Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading 0.2% higher.
  • Asian markets traded -0.9% lower.
  • US futures are trading slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): None

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX had its biggest sell-off yesterday since 2/25. 
  • We continue to see the volume flow in much stronger on the sell-offs then on the days when the market rallies.
  • At this point, in the short-term price action on the SPX suggests we are in more of a range bound market than it is trending in any direction. 
  • For that to change look for a break of 1538 or 1563. 
  • Yesterday brought us off of short-term overbought levels for the first time since 3/4.
  • VIX managed to get back up to 14 yesterday. 
  • I don’t recommend using dead cat bounces as an opportunity to reload your short positions.
  • Market is starting to become rumor driven yet again – this time surrounding the country of Cyprus.
  • The nearest  short-term support level for this market lies at 1514. 
  • Ideally, we are still in need of a more sustained pullback to 1500-1510 level simply for the reason, that it would once again bring stocks back to a place with more ideal setups and opportunities for trading. 
  • Also the amount of margin being used to buy stocks are at levels that historically have led to notable reversals in the market. 
  • Both channels (July October 2012) and the price channel we are currently in are very similar in nature. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Bought yesterday SRPT at $33.07
  • Bought yesterday HOV at $6.19
  • Bought GG at $33.55
  • Stopped out of CY at $11.40 for a -3% loss. 
  • Remain Long SLV at $27.97
  • Remaining patient at these elevated price levels – not going to force position that aren’t there. 
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 3-22-13

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