A Stock Market Bottom In 2023? | Podcast Episode #305

0:07
Hey, I’m Ryan Mallory and this is my swing trading the stock market podcast. I’m here to teach you how to trade in a complex ever-changing, world of Finance, learn what it means to trade, profitably and consistently managing risk, avoiding the pitfalls of trading. And most importantly, to let those winners run wild, you can succeed at the stock market and I’m ready to show you how, hey, everybody, this is Ryan.

0:31
Mallory with swing trading the stock market, and here we are in 20:23. I’m excited about what the market has to hold for us this year. I’m excited about the Bourbons that I’m going to try this year and I’m excited about the emails and the questions that you guys are going to send my way.

0:47
But for this particular episode, I’m not doing an email. I’m not taking any questions. I’m going to talk about the possibilities of a stock market. Bottomed in 2023 took last week off from doing any new episodes. It was a good time for me to be able to step back, relax, a little bit. I don’t know about you guys, but when it gets towards The end of the year, I would say, the last week in particular, I can almost feel my whole body of my whole mind just shutting down.

1:13
It’s not that I’m like unable to think, or walk or anything like that. What I’m trying to say is I can feel the fatigue start to kick in, I can feel the tiredness start to set in. Then once I get that New Year’s Day weekend, all of a sudden, I get really excited about the year ahead. And that’s exactly where I’m at right now.

1:28
I feel like all that energy is come back, I’m excited. I’m prepped and I’m ready to take on this new year. There’s gonna be about hundred episodes that I do this year, I tend to do about two week. You got figure, they’ll probably be a couple weeks throughout the year were only do one but that comes out to about 100 episodes each year.

1:44
And just recently I finished my 300th episode. So maybe by the end of this year, I’ll be around 400 episodes strong on this podcast. And I want to thank you guys again, from the bottom of my heart, for being part of this podcast episode. Some of you guys have listened to every podcast episode, I’ve done multiple times, and if you haven’t, I encourage you to go back and do it.

2:00
They’re very relevant to this day. I don’t try to focus as much on day-to-day. Stock market developments, but trying to improve yourself as a Trader overall, the mindset, the approach, the strategies that go along with swing trading and success in the stock market. Now, before I start getting into my thoughts on, whether or not, we’ll have a stock market bottomed in 2023, I gotta tell you guys, what am I kicking off?

2:22
This first podcast episode with? And it’s going to be a bottle that I found Total Wine. It’s a smooth Ambler which I’m always been a big fan of just for their old scout bourbon in particular. I think that’s one of the best ever. Today, sippers that is out there, especially for the price. And I think it even went down over the last few months.

2:39
I think you can get a bottle for like twenty eight, twenty nine dollars now but this one’s also from smooth Ambler, it’s called Big level. I’m not a huge fan of smooth, am blurs contradiction in the one with the elephant and Fry. I don’t think that’s very good but anytime they come out with a new one, I always want to try it. So hopefully this is like another old scout bourbon but to the eye very deep rich brown color, it’s very nice looking color to this particular bourbon to the nose.

3:03
You pick it up. Little bit of ethanol not a lot but just a little bit you pick up on some caramel smells and then to the palate you still taste a little bit of that caramel and I think this might be the first one. We’re actually taste marmalade. That’s right. I actually taste some marmalade in this particular Bourbon.

3:21
And on the Finish, you got a little bit of spice and it’s weird because this is a hundred proof that I didn’t mention that yet, but it’s 100 Proof bourbon 50% alcohol, but it doesn’t feel that way. It almost feels like it’s under proof. I don’t, I’m not saying that it is, but it just Has that taste, it doesn’t come on really strong like what you would expect from 100 Proof bourbon, but that could also make it more appealing to a lot of people because of its drinkability because it doesn’t come on too strong.

3:46
But it’s got a very nice finish. It’s satisfying. I wouldn’t say it’s really deep and complex but it’s definitely acceptable. Everyday sipper, absolutely paid $38 for this bottle. I’m going to give it a 7.3. I think that that’s a pretty solid rating for this particular one.

4:03
I don’t want to go any higher than that. Because then you start to get into that same range as like Noah’s Mill bourbon, which I gave a 7.5. I think Noah’s Mill is better than that. I think it’s not near as good as the Town Branch bourbon which I gave us 7.7. So I think the 7.3 is appropriate which is also aligned with the 7.3 that I gave to 1792 small-batch bourbon.

4:24
So, smooth, Ambler big level. We did bourbon straight bourbon whiskey 7.3. Okay. So back to the stock market, bottom and 2023. One thing that you want to make sure that you’re not getting caught up in and I know it’s probably easy to do it with this particular bear Market that we’ve been in than ever before because we ended 20 21 on a high note and then 2022 came in was like immediately the selling took place and it was all calendar year long.

4:50
So you almost want to assume that 20:23 is a new chapter in this whole Saga that okay, this is the time that we finally go right back up and it’s going to happen right out of the gate. Do I have a way of knowing whether that’s to be true or not? No, I don’t. But just because we’re done with 22, doesn’t mean that you dismiss what happened in 2022?

5:09
You can’t put that behind you. You have to still take the information in the experiences and what we saw on the charts and the analysis and still apply it to 2023 because it’s still relevant and I say this because I know it’s very easy for somebody say, all right, we’re done with 2022, the bear markets behind us, we’re out of that year.

5:25
I even saw some commentators and some ETS and oh man, thank goodness 20:22 is behind us. Well, the market doesn’t care that. It was 20 22 and it was selling off. It just happened to be the Genin of 2022 when it started and it continued throughout the year.

ChatGPT said:

5:44
Now, historically speaking, most of your recessions and Market sell-offs only last one year. You don’t have a lot that last beyond one year, but if they do last beyond one year and they go for two years then you’re probably looking at a third straight year, selling take, for example, the Great Depression that lasted about four years or so, in terms of Market selling you take the 2000.com bubble, it lasted Beyond one, trading gear, and it didn’t stop at just two years.

6:05
To the downside. It actually lasted 3 2000, 2001 2002, finally bottom in 2003, good. Now you take the Great Recession, 2008 that only lasts one year, we bought them in March of 2009 and that essentially jump-started one of the biggest rallies and Market history, welcom, 2009 up until 2022.

6:27
And by the way, one of the most interesting things about the 2009 bottom list, the market low for the S&P 500 was 666, which is beyond weird. And strange to me, I still can’t believe that’s what it actually was but look it up. That’s what it was and I think was March 9th, 2009 know.

6:44
A lot of things that tends to happen when you have a market bottom, is that you start seeing the interest rate Cuts kick in. Well, you’d have to be living under a rock to not realize that we’re in a market environment where the interest rates are still going up. They have not cut the rates yet. They don’t even have any intentions of cutting the rates anytime soon, and they have every intention a still continuing to raise Rates for what many believe is to be another few meetings, at least, in which point they will pause and then reassess, but has there been any talk about interest rate cuts?

7:14
No, but that’s usually what starts it. If you go back to 2020 when we had the covid pandemic, what do they do? They cut interest rates to zero and then all of a sudden, the market bottomed and took off for 2020 and 2021. If you go back to 2018, the same thing, when 2008, Great Recession bottom, we were in a environment of those Interest rates, they weren’t raising the rates.

7:37
So we’re still in an environment where they’re raising interest rates, which makes you really wonder whether or not this Market has the potential to bottom anytime soon. But guess what? Here’s the good news. Whether it bottoms are does not bottom in 2023, it’s not our job to figure it out, we don’t have to do that.

7:53
Our job is not to find the bottom or to even predict it. There’s gonna be a lot of people out there and you’re probably going to see it more this year than you’ve ever seen it before, you’re going to be giving you their predictions. Now, I’ll do YouTube videos and I’ll say, okay, are we bottoming? Fact title of this podcast is a stock market, bottom and 2023 and it would almost make you think.

8:10
Maybe he’s talking about whether or not we’re going to bottom in 2023? No, I’m simply asking the question, are we to bottom in 2023 and instead of giving people the answer that they’re really hoping for I’m being realistic with you and trying to tell you that you don’t know when it’s going to bottom. Nor can you predict it with any accuracy and five years from now, you’ll probably see people on CNBC being touted saying, oh, this was the person who predicted the stock market bottom.

8:36
No, he probably made 50 or 60 predictions of when the stock market bottomed didn’t. When he finally did get one of those predictions stick, then he’s the guy who self proclaimed himself as a stock market, bottom picker and I could go down that route and try to do that stuff. But I would only be doing it for podcast downloads and that’s not what I’m here for.

8:53
What? I want to give you guys is the reality of trading, the reality of the stock market, in the truth is, nobody knows and you can’t predict it, it’s impossible. And if you do get it right, don’t We think that you did something to get it right, you just got lucky.

9:08
There was a time in my trading, where I thought that I could predict stock market tops and stock market bottoms. I remember there was one in this probably was like 20 years ago where I hit a short-term top in the market. I pretty much top ticket at the time. I thought I was a genius and that was the worst thing that ever happened to me at that particular time.

9:26
Why is? Because it actually made me think that, I could time the stock market top. That’s why I always talk about, you know, if you have a good trade but you had a horrible one in the trade, sometimes, that’s the worst thing that can possibly happen because even though you may profits on that, it’ll lead the greater losses in the future because you actually think what you were doing was right?

9:44
And I remember when I time, that stock market top, I remember I was like, short on the financials or something of that nature. And I had a huge payday that day, but it also led me to think that I was better than I was, and that I could nail these tops and instead of nailing tops in the future, I started missing them on the regular.

10:02
Not realizing that like everybody else I suck it. All Market tops and bottoms. Had I been wrong on that one time that I happen to be right by a stroke of luck. It would have saved me money down the road, and we have to be careful when it comes to trading that. We don’t let our egos, because we might get right on a trade.

10:19
Or because we have some success in the stock market that we don’t let our egos convince us that we’re better than we really are. Because at any given moment, you can destroy your portfolio and you have to go into every single trading session. Realizing I am fully capable of destroying my portfolio.

10:35
Most people don’t realize that it is the ones that do that usually stick around for a very long time. I can’t even begin to tell you, how many Traders I have seen over the past couple years, skip trading stocks altogether, and go straight into buying calls and puts and creating complex option strategies for themselves.

10:55
First of all options, trading is probably the hardest vehicle to find success at because there’s so many different variables that you have to account for that. You don’t have to account for when you’re Trading. Doc’s outright or equities. But why do people do it when they are so inexperienced in the stock markets?

11:10
Because they have let their egos convince them, whether it’s through past success, or a friend telling them, oh, you’re smart enough to be able to do this, that you should be trading options because you can trade so much more. You can control so many more shares by simply controlling a contract to 100 shares, rather than only being able to buy one or two shares of the same stock.

11:28
And then the end, they think because they’re only paying a small premium relative to buying the stock outright that their risk is, Less. But what they don’t realize is that it takes a blink of an eye to lose all that premium and options contract. But one thing that won’t lose. Its value is.

11:44
swingtradingthestockmarket.com, swingtradingthestockmarket.com, is the website that goes along with this podcast with it. You’re going to get all my stock market research each and every day, that’s going to include updates on the market, on all the big tech stocks that’s going to give you a number of different trading ideas to consider and think about, as well as my watch lists each day, so check it out.

12:05
swingtradingthestockmarket.com, I suspect at some point when we do bottom, it won’t be too long later that I will have a position to the long side, but when I get long, I won’t know necessarily that the stock market had bottomed. Why?

12:21
Because I’m not really interested in projecting in my swing trades. What the stock market’s going to do? Two, three, four, six months, two years down the road. I’m really just trying to follow what the markets doing right now, in the opportunities that it gives me if it gives me a great opportunity. Opportunity to hold a stock for a couple of months without having to hold that stock through earnings, then great, if it comes with a lot of profits, even better, but I won’t be getting in at that particular time thinking that this is the market bottomed.

12:46
No, I’ll be just plain because there’s an opportunity to the upside to play a breakout. That looks like there’s potential for further upside based off of what the technical analysis showing me. But it won’t be, because I like I suspect that we’re at a bottom right here. I’m getting completely long. No, it won’t be because of that. Again, I have no clue where we end up bottoming at, but our job is not defined.

13:05
Bottom or predict it is to follow the markets Trend. And with that, the three things I want you to tell yourself as you go into this new year as the market may or may not bottom this year.

13:22
And I’m not saying may or may not, because I’m too afraid to say what the market bottom is. It’s me knowing that I can’t time the market nor can anybody else? And I’m not going to sit here and make somebody else listening to me think that I actually have the ability to time a market bottom because I don’t. So one. Don’t worry about the market bottom, don’t care about a market bottom, who cares, as a swing Trader.

13:38
Why would you care about knowing when the stock market’s bottoming? Just follow the market trends, don’t get married to your stocks, don’t get married to your analysis because things change every day, the stock market changes every day, the daily chart changes with every new candle that gets put on there.

13:54
And so you have to be willing to be flexible. You have to be willing to flow like the water down a river with the Ebbs and flows, right? Number two, I’m going to be taking partial profits knowing that I can’t predict tomorrow. With the amount of bearishness that we have seen over the past year and the amount of selling that we’ve seen.

14:10
If we do get a bounce, every bounce doesn’t lead to a stock market bottom. So I have to be willing to take profits and take profits aggressively because up until this point, every Market bounce has been a dead cat bounce. So, until that Trend changes, we have to assume, that’s what we’re dealing with.

14:26
And look, I had a really good year of trading last year. But the one thing that I can’t do is rely on My Success from last year to dictate my success for this year. I can’t say, well, I was pretty good at trading last year, I’m going to be good at trading this year. No, it’s a what have you done for me lately mentality? When it comes to trading in the stock market, you’re only as good as your last trade, and if you blow up in 2023, doesn’t matter how well you traded in 2022, or any year prior to that.

14:51
Again, it’s about not letting the ego tell you that you’re a better Trader than what you really are. We have full capability of blowing up our account each and every day we sit behind our trading desk. So, don’t think that just because you had a good year last year that success is insured for tomorrow.

15:07
If you enjoyed this podcast, I would encourage you to leave me a five star review. I really do appreciate those. Make sure to keep sending me your emails ryan@shareplanner.com, I do read them and I would say the large majority of them, do get put on the air. So keep sending me your emails.

15:22
Keep sending your questions. I’ll read them. And I’ll do my very best to make sure that you guys get an episode. And with that, thank you, God bless. I hope everybody has a wonderful 2023. Thanks for listening to my Podcast swing trading the stock market, I’d like to encourage you to join me in the SharePlanner Trading Block, where I navigate the stock market each day with Traders from around the world. With your membership, you will get a 7-Day trial and access to my trading room including alerts via text, email and WhatsApp.

15:51
So go ahead sign up by going to SharePlanner.com/tradingblock, that’s www.shareplanner.com/trading-block. And follow me on SharePlanner’s Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, where I provide unique market and trading information every day. If you have any questions please feel free to email me at ryan@shareplanner.com. All the best to you and I look forward to trading with you soon.