Don’t Be Hard On Yourself | Podcast Episode #303

0:07
Hey, I’m Ryan Mallory and this is my swing trading the stock market podcast. I’m here to teach you how to trade in a complex ever-changing, world of Finance, learn what it means to trade, profitably and consistently managing risk, avoiding the pitfalls of trading. And most importantly, to let those winners run wild, you can succeed at the stock market and I’m ready to show you how, hey, everybody, this is Ryan.

0:32
Mallory with swing trading the stock market today’s episode, We’re Going to revisit a recent episode that we did from a guy we called Cletus. And I get it we called a lot of people Cletus on this show die because my own doing, I might have been responsible for like one or two but everybody else wants to be called Cletus for their redneck name.

0:47
Florida redneck name on this podcast. So the follow-up is going to be off of a previous episode of recent. 12 were you might remember? We were talking about the different portfolios that this guy was trading with and he just had a good question. I thought, you know what, this would be a good one to follow up on and the reason for that is because I think that it apply to a lot of people The struggles that they’ve gone through this year.

1:08
And if you’re listening to this for the first time, I hope that you can find some Solace. If it’s been a struggle for you, this year, with some of the words of encouragement that I’m going to provide in this episode and just some of the perspective that I want to share with you guys, so Cletus follows up with hey Ryan how goes it. This is one of your Cletus fans.

1:23
Again I previously mentioned to you that I have four portfolios to which I don’t manage because there is a larger amount that I can’t risk because of my inexperience. The other two, I manage myself to learn and practice how to invest. I’ve only been at it for this past year and I’ve discovered offered you half way through the year and your podcast has been invaluable. Anyways, the two accounts that I practice with started with a total of $700 and I have lost $126, approximately 18%, I think as of this writing and as of this email there about three more weeks to go till the end of the year in the past few weeks, the profit and loss has fluctuated like two horses nose, the nose before, the finish line.

1:55
So I may end up with either a few dollars one or if you dollars lost. So my question is this, it seems like I didn’t do all that bad and I control my losses. We but doesn’t look like I will have gained very much. If I do come out ahead just a few bucks, it’s been a great year for learning about the stock market and gaining experience.

2:14
But do you think I am on the right track to continue? Or did I waste a year of my time in my life investing and that it’s just not my forte sincerely Cletus. Alright Cletus is a good email and I think there is a lot of people that are given second thoughts trading. You know, you had the 2020 years and you have the 2021 year where it felt like the market always went up, everybody always bought the dip and then 2022 comes Along and you’re like, what the heck just happened?

2:37
And it’s why I always preach manage the risk because these kinds of years do happen and if you’re not careful, it takes one year to wipe out a Whole Decade of good trading your. So a lot of people are in that boat. So Cletus, you’re not by yourself. But before I get to it, what am I drinking? Well, I am drinking Fistful of bourbon.

2:55
You may have seen it in stores before. I’ve seen it before, I never bought it till now to the nose. Definitely pick up a little bit of ethanol, which I’m not happy with. That’s going to be a 2/10 Point deduction in the world. Don’t know how much of a deduction will be, but it will be a deduction because I don’t like smelling ethanol when I take a whiff of these things.

3:11
But I also pick up a strong smell of vanilla and then to The Taste, it’s buttery with like a strong caramel Flavor. Now, my wife tries it. She thinks it’s honey, I think it’s caramel but hey, kind of close either way, they’re both sweet flavors. It is very nutty and I’m not a huge fan of the Nutty flavors.

3:29
Simply because most of the time when a bourbon has a Nutty flavor to it, it comes across very Bland and I don’t like Bland thing. Um, so this one creates that bland flavor with that Nutty Nutty taste. You also get a little bit of men, a little bit of Ginger, not bad. And then you get a little kick at the end, a little spice. 45% alcohol 90-proof got a gold looking color to it it’s nothing deep and Rich like that Pappy’s that I had the other day.

3:53
I’m going to give this a five point a I don’t know maybe it’s back as its following up on the heels of a Pappy review which I’ve just fell in love with. But yeah I’m going to give this one a 5.8. It’s just it doesn’t titillate me enough to ruin a give it Higher review. So this full bourbon 5.8 now back to Cletus.

4:10
One thing I would say to him is congrats because I think a lot of people they start trading their most valuable accounts their 401ks and the money that means the most to them that they’re the most dependent on for retirement and everything else. They start off with that and they get a couple of good trades under their wings. And I think they’re really good and they get Reckless and then they blow their entire 401k and they start pretty much over from scratch Cletus.

4:31
Here, did not do that. Cletus, was smart enough to start off with two accounts. It’s totally about $700. Yes. He lost a hundred twenty eight dollars which comes out to about 18%, but he still doing better than the street man. You got the market down over twenty percent on the year. So you know should he be hard on himself? No, because there’s people trading billion-dollar hedge funds that are down, you know, 30, 40 %.

4:50
I mean, look at freaking Kathy woods man. Imagine having your money with her. Look how much money she manages? That’s a real dumpster fire over there, you know, they’re probably drinking a bunch of fistful bourbon right now. But even with your inexperience, you were smart enough to not risk the farm to not bet the whole Farm on your trades to realize that hey, you know what, and this is what most people don’t realize.

5:11
Most people think hey, I’m a smart guy. I got this figured out and they go into the stock market not realizing that. The market does engage your success based off of your smarts or your ability out, think it nobody can, nobody can outthink the market. So, our best goal as a Trader should be to respond to the market to react to the market, not try to outthink the market or act like we have a crystal ball to know what it’s going to do next.

5:30
Because None of us do and if somebody acts like they can predict the market the next day or the next week or the next year, they’re just fooling you. Yes, there’s reason to believe that next year will be bearish. Can I guarantee that? No, we may be at all-time highs again this time. Next year, I have no way to know which way it’ll actually go.

5:49
So, our best route is to respond to the market and what it’s doing and not to take it personal. If it surprises us with what it does, if it all of a sudden starts to rally on Monday and it just starts to rip higher throughout the week and into Christmas. Do we take it personal and say, no, I’m sticking to my guns, I’m going to stay short.

6:04
Do you gotta cover? You got to go ahead and say, you know what? The markets, not willing to go lower at this point in time. I need to cover my position and get long. And so a lot of people they start off with in experience in Market thinking that they can outthink the market. They use their 401ks or the most precious capital and they blow it all up.

6:22
But Cletus here did not do that. So congrats to Cletus for not just going completely ham and risking Capital that you could not afford to lose. Because that’s the essence of He is not using Capital that you can’t afford to lose. Because when you start using Capital that you can’t afford to lose, you’re inserting a lot of emotions into your trading.

6:39
You’re not going to follow your stop losses. You’re going to take losses personal, you’re going to panic, you’re not going to follow your trading plan or your trading strategy and Cletus here, lost 18 percent of his Capital hundred, twenty eight bucks. Lived trade Another Day, live to trade in to 2024 assuming that between now and then he’s doesn’t start trading his 401k, which assumes that.

7:01
He’s you know, not going to, you know, blow up his account between now and then which I have confidence that he won’t do that but I want to take a moment to address all of you because 2022 I would say for 99% of Traders has been a year. Like they never thought Could Happen, never could imagine prior to this year, everybody was talking about the markets going to go to the moon, it’s going to just keep going up perpetually, you never fight the FED which all of a sudden went out the window when the buyers started fighting the fit, everything goes to the moon.

7:29
Gme was going to become the most valuable. We’ll start to ever trade. AMC was going to be right behind it and now they’re all bygones. If you’re still trading those things you’re just holding out for hope. That one day you might get lucky again. And so 2022 was really a pivot point and the market, it wiped out a lot of people, a lot of people went back to work.

7:48
I can’t tell you. If you go back and read listen to some of my earlier podcast episodes, how many people were emailing me about wanting to quit their job and become full-time Traders. I don’t get near the amount of those anymore and it’s not that you Shouldn’t aspire to that, but I think you shouldn’t aspire to it under false pretenses.

8:05
And that’s what a lot of people were doing. They got lucky on a couple of Wall Street, bet, Straits thinking, that’s what’s gonna always happen. And it doesn’t, the market has its personality, and it’s going to have bull markets, it’s going to have bear markets and it’s going to be sideways. And this year here, it’s been very bearish just looking at the year-to-date returns.

8:21
Right now, the market for me, this year has been very good. I’m pretty happy about it. I’ve made most of my money being short on the market or trading inverse ETFs and then there’s been Tunas where I’ve been able to get long and make somebody there as well on the dead cat Bounce has but that also comes with the experience of realizing that 2020 and 2021 were more abnormalities that were going to likely to continue especially with 20/20 when you had the whole shutdown.

8:45
So if you made it through this year, congrats to you, I know it wasn’t it easier. I know there was a lot of frustrations guys, you can be tired of this year. 2022 was a hectic year to trade, but it also created a fresh reset. It’s kind of like when you’ve had a string of really good sunny days and then you Get that downpour.

9:02
Yeah, it’s not fun when it’s raining outside, but oftentimes it provides a nice refresher, it gives you some much-needed watering for the grass, and things start to look a little bit better after a good rain storm. And that’s what we’re in the middle of right now. We’re in a nasty rainstorm, and I don’t know when it’s going to get over with.

9:17
Maybe it’ll continue in all the way through 2023, I don’t know. But again, if we just focus on reacting to the market, rather than thinking that we can know what it’s going to do instead will be much better off. I’m tired this year this year has been one of the most tiresome yours for me. Traitor, let me tell you, there’s been a lot more stress I can name 12 of them at specifically and that would be the CPI reports that then you have what the eight or nine fomc statements this year, those are pretty tiring to and then you have the pressures that follow them then you have the PPI reports in the pce in the unemployment and the gdps.

9:47
Yeah it wears you out after a while you’re going to be tired when you’re doing this full time or even part time and you’re seeing the volatility in your portfolio. Yes, I’m tired. I would assume that a lot of you guys are tired, too, but don’t grow weary. During this time Cletus, here was wondering if he wasted his time.

10:04
No, he didn’t waste his time. Do you know, much experience that he gained and you guys gained by pushing through this Market by trying, to believe in the risk management principles by taking profits along the way by not trying to outthink the moves of this market and able experience. And there was probably some big losses that you took along the way too because of the inexperience and that’s okay.

10:23
When you’re starting off in, you’re risking a little bit of capital and you’re not putting it all on the line, there’s going to be some major learning. And if you got through them, good for you, man. I mean, even for me this year, I’ve traded lighter than I have in years, very light, there was times where I went two weeks without Detroit, not because I was taking that time off.

10:42
I was watching the market every single day pretty much – a couple of days that I took off, but outside of those I was always watching the market Focus right on what it was doing before I go any further, make sure you check out swingtradingthestockmarket.com, that’s going to be all of my stock market. Research that I probably tried each and every day.

10:59
We’re talking about multiple videos on Market each day we’re talking about watch lists of stocks that I’m following each day updates on the market updates on the big thing tech stocks. It’s a really good resource or supporting the podcast in the process. And you’re really enriching yourself with even more experience that you’re getting by learning about the technical analysis by looking at the market through my eyes and seeing how I interpret different news events and being able to learn from that as well.

11:21
So check that out, it’s really good educational stuff guys, swingtradingthestockmarket.com, but Cletus is here is worried that this was a waste, but it wasn’t because it was Such a good year for experience that he was able to gain. There’s a lot of you that just started trading this year and I can tell you that there is times where the market does get better and it gets better for long stretches and a long period of time, just look at 2009.

11:43
When we came out of the Great Recession and how long yes, there was a couple years where the market was down but overall it was a steady Trend higher and yes that Trend got broken this year but that’s going to happen over the course of time. There’s always Market Corrections and they’re usually steep ones and there’s usually a lot of people that get wiped out.

12:00
So again if you’re not One of those that got wiped out, good for you, man, you’re doing something right. And even if you’re experienced good job, because even for the experienced, this is a tough market. Like I was saying earlier, I’ve had to trade lighter than ever. I used the volatility of the market to allow me to benefit in my portfolio.

12:16
I’m not going, you know, 80 or 90% long in my portfolio. I’m going most of the time somewhere between 20 to 40 percent vested in my portfolio in about 60 to 80%. Oftentimes, I’m 100% cash just depending on the conditions of the overall Market. And I’m taking a lighter approach to it because we’re in a very volatile Market, when we’re in a bull market, you’re not getting these hundred and fifty Point moves to the upside, or to the downside.

12:39
I mean, yes, there’s times where that might happen but consistently like what we see now in 2022. Now that doesn’t really happen that way. That’s like the Hallmark of a bull market is when we have a lower period of volatility. When the markets willing to rally on a regular basis were rallies, aren’t suspected of being a dead cat Bounce has, but a continuation of the trend higher that creates new all-time highs, Sighs.

13:01
So, it’s not always the time, you learned a lot, you survive, this Market. If I had traded this Market in my first year of trading, second year of trading, or 30, or trading, it probably would have wiped me out. There were so many periods of false hopes and not only that, especially in the second half of the Year, there was a lot more choppiness.

13:18
A lot more ability for you to get taken out of your positions. If you look at the price action on the S&P alone from late September through early November, it was sideways and choppy. You had a day or two The market screamed higher and then it followed by another month of sideways price action.

13:36
That’s about 3 plus months right there. Nothing but sideways price action, if you look at the price action from June and July sideways, price action, and then, and Late July, you had this huge breakout to the upside that peaked out in August followed by a massive sell-off thereafter that took it to New lows.

13:53
And while there was periods of where there was a rally in, there was a sell-off, there was a ton of time like again in May. Where we traded sideways again in March and late February. We traded sideways. December alone. We have traded sideways up until the last two days where we broke down, finally, and all of the losses from this month, really can be attributed to about the last two or three days of trading.

14:17
And so there’s been a lot of waiting and a lot of patience. That’s why I kept preaching, patience Tia episode. After episode, you got to be patient as marking, you got to wait for the moves to develop because once they do develop those moves might only last for two, three, four, five days. And then we’re back into a period of consolidation, and the last thing you want to do is get ripped up in that consolidation, period.

14:36
That’s also why it’s important when we are in this consolidation period to be aggressive with profit-taking along the way, make sure that you’re capturing some games, when we hit the extreme ends of ranges because we don’t break out of the range and we pull back, you wanna be able to walk away with some profits in hand. So, I would encourage Cletus and I would encourage those listening, you get through this year, give yourself a pat on the back.

14:54
There’s a lot of people that have listen to this podcast that I’ve fallen by the wayside. Why have they Fallen by the wayside because they I didn’t take Serious, the principles of risk management. They didn’t take the heart. The need to be patient and waiting for the right setups. They were looking at the dollars.

15:10
They were ignoring the risks. They weren’t letting the volatility, do the work for them in their portfolio and scale back on the amount of capital that they were putting out there and as a result not only are they not listening to this pocket seeing where they’re not trading anymore. So if you’re listening to it and you are trading, you’re doing a good thing, you’ve managed to get through it.

15:26
And so, for those who have been able to get through it and do it relatively unscathed. Holy cow man props. Here. And for those who’ve been able to profit, a lot of the people in the trading block have been able to profit him. I’m so thankful for them because they’ve helped me profit as well because a lot of times they have put out trades ideas in front of me that I didn’t even see and they put them out there and I was like wow this is a good trade setup.

15:45
For instance one of them was D Nu T just recently. When member spotted it I took it and it was a nice game. So if you enjoyed this podcast, don’t forget to leave me a five star review, on whatever platform. You’re listening to keep the faith, make sure to keep sending me your questions ryan@shareplanner.com.

16:01
I do need your questions because that’s what fuels this podcast and make sure to check out swingtradingthestockmarket.com. Thank you. Merry Christmas. Ho! Ho ho and a happy New Year. Thank you. God bless. Thanks for listening to my podcast. Swing trading the stock market.

16:16
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16:39
And follow me on SharePlanners, Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, where I provide unique market and trading information every day. If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at ryan@shareplanner.com all the best to you and I look forward to chatting with you soon.