I Think We | Podcast Episode #296

0:07
Hey, I’m Ryan Mallory and this is my swing trading the stock market podcast. I’m here to teach you how to trade in a complex ever-changing, world of Finance, learn what it means to trade, profitably and consistently managing risk, avoiding the pitfalls of trading. And most importantly, to let those winners run wild, you can succeed at the stock market, and I’m ready to show you how, hey, everybody, this is Ryan Mallory with swing trading the stock market in.

0:34
Usually, I do those emails. And I think I’ve been doing this a lot lately, actually, but I do usually do the emails and I answer your questions, but today I’m going to actually talk about something that’s on my mind. I feel like there’s been a lot of topics on my mind lately, and sometimes it’s just something that somebody says, or something, somebody does or something that I read about and I’m thinking to myself, I gotta do it podcast episode on this.

0:54
I can’t hold off on this one and I’m always afraid to that by come up with a good podcast episode that I want to talk to you guys about, but I’ll forget it if I don’t do it right then and there. So this is a case of me doing a podcast. So right here and now so the title of this is called I think we, I think we dot dot dot and this is one of the most common Expressions that I hear Traders use to justify their trades.

1:19
It’s like, I think we go higher, I think we go lower. Oh I think we’re going to reverse midday here or I think we’re going to Rally the rest of the day after dipping lower. Most of the time people try to sound pretty realistic with their expectations. When they start a sentence off with. I think we they’ll say like yeah I think we’re gonna probably dip a little bit into in the morning and then we’re going to Rally the rest of the day with a person’s long.

1:38
So they’re trying to you know, almost talk themselves into like holding through that dip, not getting too freaked out and then expecting that rally in the afternoon so it’s like they’re almost talking themselves to stay in into the trade. I gotta tell you I hate that expression. I think we and I’m guilty of it too guys don’t I mean I do these podcast episodes and sometimes it probably sounds like I’m standing up on my Podium here that I have with this podcast and that I’m like preaching to you guys but almost every one of these podcast episodes.

2:03
Either I’m guilty of it or I’ve Done it before and probably done it plenty of times. But do I think we or even better? I believe we there’s no room for beliefs in the stock market when it comes to a belief in a stock you know, or the belief in the market. I believe we I think we that’s usually what really messes up traders in a long-term.

2:24
But now before I get to further into this, I want to make sure that I remind you guys to check out. swingtradingthestockmarket.com, that’s the patron website. That goes a long side of this podcast and if that you’re going to get all my stock market, Research each and every day that’s going to include watch list. That’s going to include gosh updates on all the big tech stocks that’s going to include my watch list.

2:42
The stocks that I’m following each day, check it out. Really, really cool. Any support podcast is the result? Last time. I’ll say anything about that today. Now, what am I drinking? I’m drinking Yukon fire, guys, this Yukon fire. I did a review on its Yukon Honey, whiskey.

2:57
And I give it a six point three. Now, most of the time, I do a Honey whiskey. It’s not going to score that high, really not. And, and so before I even tried this, I went back to see, what did I Of it. The Yukon honey. And it was a six point three, which I was quite surprised. And I’m like, I don’t know if this stuff is going to be that great. But let me tell you, this thing is like a party in the mouth, man. This is really good. I don’t pick up much on. I like the smell front that like nothing that really strikes me as exciting, but it tastes amazing. Now, is this like the the go to Whiskey that I would necessarily want to like load up the Shelf with or go bourbon hunting for no a bit but this is a party sipper if I’ve ever had one now.

3:31
The reason why I think first of all it’s way better than Fireball whiskey and that’s Everybody likes to go after the Fireball whiskey. First of all Fireball, whiskey is like a 66 proof by believer. It’s like 33 percent alcohol. This is 100 Proof. It’s 50% alcohol. So, you’re getting more of that actual whiskey flavor underneath, and not that syrupy, cough syrup type flavor.

3:50
I hate that. That’s why I don’t like Fireball whiskey too much. It tastes too much like cough syrup, but this one at 100 Proof. Oh no, you still taste the whiskey, but it’s just a strong cinnamon flavor. I like it. Now I’m not gonna, this is definitely not a everyday sipper. Like I said, it’s a party sipper but Good. Like I have a party with a bunch of friends coming up and we do this every year for Christmas.

4:09
A Christmas party annual thing, right? I’m going to definitely have some of this because I know there’s a lot of people that don’t like Bourbons don’t like cocktails, but they might like this stuff here because it’s pretty good. I mean, it’s 100%. One of those classic 80s 90s Fireballs that you use to buy at the candy shop and it was like almost too big to fit in your mouth and you were like eyes were watering just trying to get through the intense heat.

4:30
That was coming from the fireball. It’s kind of like that. I mean it’s not that bad in terms of heat but it’s he’s got that same flavor profile. I like it. I really thought this was gonna be a drain poor but it’s not in the Finish is really strong to. I mean you definitely have some of that fireball heat coming through on the Finish, really saw it. I’m gonna give it a 6.0 reason why I don’t give it like an 8 or a 9.

4:48
I feel like it’s kind of disrespectful to the Bourbons where they don’t add flavors to it, where they spend 15-20 years, aging them. Yeah. I’m not giving it that kind of a score but that’s pretty high for a whiskey where they basically enhance it with flavor. So Yukon Jack, fire, whiskey, 100 Proof 6.0. I might even call it Fireball.

5:05
Whiskey a couple of times in this review, if I did, I apologize for that. Now, going back to the I think we the I believe we was listening to a person the other day saying. Yeah I think we’re going to Rally higher than after that. We’re going to sell off the rest of the day. I can’t even process that kind of rationale.

5:22
Because here’s the thing, it’s not that he can’t be right? It’s not that he can’t make a lot of money because it may actually go along those lines. I mean, the market can either go up or down, right? But long-term to consistently be able to predict it. No, it’s a foolish play. Why am I trading stocks? Is it to be right on one trade or is? It to be right, consistently over 10 15, 20, 30 years.

5:39
I want to stay in the game and to be able to consistently predict what the markets going to do entered a daily or anything else, kind of foolhardy instead. And maybe I’m jumping ahead a little bit here because this wasn’t quite where I wanted to introduce these thoughts. But I think you should be telling yourself. I see.

5:55
I react to what the market is doing. Not, I think we’re going to do something before the market actually does it, or I believe we’re going to do something before the market ever. Does it? That’s like, with Place, for instance, right? The market pulls back test. The key support level, I don’t buy it just because it’s at that support level thinking that it has to bounce.

6:12
I know fully well that it may break through that support level. Instead, I say to myself, I’m going to let it show me that it wants to bounce and then I’m going to see that it’s bouncing. And then I’m going to react to the fact that it’s bouncing, but I’m not going to say, hey, I’m going to buy a right here because I think we’re going to go down to the support level. We’re going to hit it and then we’re going to bounce.

6:29
No. Because I don’t have any possible knowledge into the future. That says that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I’d rather see it start to play out first and then get into it. I’ve come to accept two things when it comes to trading in the stock market, that I know of, for sure about myself one, I cannot predict the stock market.

6:45
I cannot predict the five minutes from now. I can’t predict it ten years from now. Also, number two, I have the ability to blow up my account every single day. So maybe now, you have an understanding of why I talk about managing risk so much because the risk is to guard us against ourselves.

7:01
I think one of the things that has helped me out so much, am I Trading, career. And what I feel like is my biggest strength. Is that? I know my limitations. I know how fallible I am as a Trader, how prone that I am to making some horrible decisions. And I think we mentality is very easy for the most seasoned Traders base.

7:19
The easiest thing to let Prevail into your thinking, I had an oil trade just recently, and oil was down 4% in the pre-market, and I’m looking at the stock nose, like, man, I’m like 15 20 cents away from my stop loss and without even realizing it, I’m starting to do the, I think we, I think we and here’s the Crazy.

7:36
I don’t even know who the hell we is. Like, who is the? We, when we say I think we is it like everybody is it Wall Street? Is it your mom and dad? Or is it your brother and sister your best friend? I don’t know. But I got into that. I said, I think, man, we’re treating lower oils trading way lower.

7:52
I think we’re going to just go ahead and stop this thing out right at the open. If this thing’s anywhere above my stop-loss, I’m going to go ahead and close it out. So what happens? The stock never get stopped out. Guess what? I took myself out of the trade and I watched the stock finish up over 1% on the That kind of sucks, right?

8:12
And it just goes to show you that when I’m talking about these things in these episodes these Concepts, I’m not just preaching at you guys. I’m doing it for myself. I’m preaching to myself because I know that I need to hear it too at times. Now do I need to hear the fact? Hey Ryan, you need to use a stop loss all the time. No, I don’t.

8:32
I pretty much got that one ingrained in my head after almost 300 episodes here on my number 296. Yeah, I don’t think I’m gonna get into a trade and not use a stop loss, but I don’t care who you are as a Trader, is very easy to get into the think mindset.

8:32
And it’s very difficult. You got to ask yourself. Am I thinking You’re in my seat. Am I thinking, or am I reacting? Am I believing were reacting in my believing or see because our beliefs, about the stock market is not usually what plays out. I mean, think, go back to like the covid crisis. Right back in March at 2020 Market, was dropping there, wasn’t anybody out there?

8:50
I’m sorry there. Wasn’t anybody out there? That was saying, hey, March 20th, whatever it was. We’re down night 30% off of the highs. Yeah, we’re going to go on this epic to your rally while still most of the country remains shut down while China keeps shutting itself down. Now we’re going to have rapid inflation and everything else but we’re gonna go on this.

9:08
Incredible tear. Did anybody really think that? No I didn’t think that. But what did I just say? I think I didn’t think that. I don’t think anybody else thought that or believe that. But when you start to see the price and how it plays out, you start to see that that is what’s happening. You start to see that the market is bottoming that it’s rallying and Rapid form and so you have to start reacting to it.

9:29
Thinking will keep you out of a trade that you should be in. Believing will keep you out of a trade that you should be in thinking will cause You two get into a trade that you shouldn’t be in and so will believing in a trade or believe in a markets Direction. Maybe for this particular episode it is probably pointed more towards me than anybody else because one of my recent raised like, I just mentioned getting out of the trade because I was thinking rather than seeing and reacting and that’s not good.

9:54
Now, do I do that every trade know? Usually I never do that but there’s times like this where you can do it without even realizing you’re doing it. By the way, this Yukon Jack holy cow. This stuff, I think I’m gonna have to get a bottle of it. I’m almost blush. Because I’d saying that because I just like bourbon so much and this is like an, you know, flavored whiskey.

10:10
And I feel like it almost goes against my principles but I think and I believe that this would be a good addition to my collection. See you can think and you can believe about a whiskey. I think this is the best whiskey I’ve ever had. Sure you can do that. You’re not gonna lose any money if you’re wrong, or I believe that this is going to be my all-time favorite.

10:26
Sure. Okay. But when it comes to stock you can’t do that man. I’ve mentioned plenty of times and this isn’t the first time I’ve talked about this concept but it’s worth revisiting. And that’s what I’m Doing here trade, what you see, not what you think. I know I’m not the smartest Trader out there far from it, but a lot of people trade off of what they think and what they believe and they think that’s okay.

10:45
They even know that they do it. And if I’m going to do that, what really sets me apart from the doctors from the lawyers from the scientists that trade that thing can believe versus me if I’m on the opposite side of the trade nothing really they’re a lot smarter than me probably a lot more successful as well.

11:03
I mean come on I stay at home all day Work out of my pajamas, talk to you fine. Folks actually like that way of life better than any other way. I couldn’t ask for anything better but in the grand scheme of things when you look at it from a societal standpoint, the doctors lawyers, the scientist. Yeah, their revered quite a bit for their smarts for their wit and everything else when they believe something when they think something about the stock market you know I don’t feel like that I have the ability to outthink them to outsmart them but I do know where I can get the edge at and that is by seeing and reacting to what the market is actually doing and not just Doing it because I think it’s going to do it.

11:37
I know we’re getting like high-level here. We’re not actually talking about actionable things from pull the lever frame of mind, we’re not talking about buying here is putting a stop loss, their kind of a strategy instead. We’re looking more at like mental approach to trading in the stock market and knowing that I can’t predict the stock market.

11:56
Knowing that I can’t believe something into happening. The market is huge. There’s so many things going into it each and every day. The best thing that I can do for myself, To stop thinking and just to see and react and like you guys, I have my flaws as a traitor. And one thing I think we can do is always keep trying to work on becoming a better Trader.

12:14
Make sure that we’re limiting our mistakes. That’s the one thing I probably do. The best thing of is limiting, my mistakes. In terms of. Yes, I’m going to make mistakes. I’m going to have losing trades, but in the long run, I don’t let those mistakes in those bad trades. The find me. In fact, I wouldn’t even call them. Bad trait that calm losing trades because the bad trades are the ones.

12:32
You don’t come back from every one of my losing trades. I’ve come back. From and I plan on doing that in the future. So, if you enjoyed this podcast episode, I would encourage you to like, And subscribe, make sure that you are follow me on all the social media accounts, whether it’s Instagram Tick-Tock. Yeah, I got a tick tock account or Facebook Twitter, if it still exists that, you know, when you’re listening to this, talk to it.

12:53
It’s all at share pointer handle. So check that out and keep sending me your emails.ryan@shareplanner.com, I’ll be sure to be getting into those and episodes going forward. Thank you guys and God bless.

13:08
Thanks for listening to my podcast. Swing trading the stock market.

13:08
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13:31
And follow me on SharePlanners Twitter, Instagram and Facebook where I put vide unique market and trading information every day. Do you have any questions? Please feel free to email me at ryan@shareplanner.com all the best to you and I look forward to trading with you soon.