Frustrations From Waiting To Trade | Podcast Episode #261

0:07
Hey, I’m Ryan Mallory, and this is my swing trading the stock market podcast. I’m here to teach you how to trade in a complex, ever changing world of finance. Learn what it means to trade profitably and consistently, managing risk, avoiding the pitfalls of trading, and most importantly, to let those winners run wild.

0:25
You can succeed at the stock market, and I’m ready to show you how. Hey everybody, this is Ryan Mallory with Swing Trading the stock market, and today’s episode, I’m going to be doing a little bit of venting, a little bit of venting from my perspective, from my world of trading.

0:44
Most of the time, as you guys know, for anyone at least who’s been listening to this podcast for a while, I spend most of my episodes answering your questions, but every once in a while. I will use this platform as a way to vent a little bit just about trading in general or if I’m struggling with something, I want to get it out there because I feel like it’s one of the best things that I can do and it goes both ways, is to not only share my frustrations, that helps me from a Maybe like a therapeutic standpoint, but it helps you guys to see the frustrations that come with trading from a person who’s doing it each and every day.

1:19
So, I want to use this episode to talk about the frustrations with waiting, and it’s been something that has helped me out tremendously this year. But when you’re in the midst of waiting, when you’re in that period of wait, it could be really frustrating. And you know that it’s for your good, you know that it’s worth it.

1:38
But it’s also very frustrating. So we’re gonna talk about that. But first, what am I drinking? I am drinking, will it, straight rye whiskey. I don’t do a lot of rye whiskeys, but I picked this one up back in June when I went up to Georgia, up into the Blue Ridge Mountains and found one of these little podunk liquor stores and found this bottle there and they sold the bottle. to me, I was excited about it because I’ve never seen it down in Florida before.

2:02
Um, I think I spent maybe like $70 maybe. I can’t remember exactly what I spent, but just this store off the beaten path showed up on Google Maps, me and my wife, we jumped on it, we got it. It’s 55.8% alcohol, so that gives it a proof of 111.6%.

2:18
It’s age of 4 years. And white oak barrels, hand selected according to the label. And then it’s bottled at cask strength, so it’s a strong bottle. It’s over 50%, which I always like the best, 50% and above. That’s kind of like the magic mark for me to be able to enjoy bourbon at its finest.

2:36
So, to the nose, I pick up a little bit like on the honey side, a little bit of this like licorice flavor. It’s not bad. All, you think maybe honey and licorice wouldn’t go together, but I do pick up on both of those smells. They smells great. You know, I read reviews all the time on some different bourbons, and I really wonder if some of these people are just completely full of it because they can say, oh, I picked up on like 30 different kinds of scents and I’m like, what are you talking about, man?

2:59
It’s like, you smell it. I mean, I don’t know how you break it down into all these different things. I mean, it’s like, Honey and licorice, that’s what I smell. To the taste, vanilla, a little bit of vanilla, maybe even a little bit of lemon, like a little lemon drop or something, man. It’s pretty nice. And then you got this finish that comes in like a fireball, not like fireball whiskey, but like the good old traditional fireballs that those who were raised in the 80s and 90s will remember they came individually wrapped in these little plastic wrappers and you sucked on them and they were great and they blew up your mouth.

3:30
It tastes more like one of those. It has a nice spicy finish to it. Maybe it comes on a little bit too strong, too fast, but overall I like it. I hate bourbon. I think that stuff is disgusting. I gave it a 6.8 bourbon, and I feel like that was way too generous.

3:47
I’ve drinking it a couple of times since then. I think it deserves somewhere in the fours, it’s that bad. I just, it has this horrible floral taste to it. But the Willet straight whiskey rye, aged 4 years, this one I’m gonna give a 7.7, really solid. Would I consider it everyday sipper?

4:02
No, not really, just because as an everyday sipper, I don’t want to be sipping on something that’s $70. I want to sip on something in the range of like $20 to $40. That’s the mark that I aim for with those everyday sippers. Now, is it a weekend sipper? Sure. Cause you can go a little bit more upscale on the weekends. You’re relaxing, you’re not, you know, drinking this stuff every day, but an everyday sipper, you know, the name speaks for itself.

4:23
It’s something you can drink every day. So 7.7 for the Will it straight whiskey rye for a year. Now, Like I said, we’re not doing an email on this particular podcast. This is a little bit of self therapy and also sharing with you my experiences. So for a little bit of background on that, I haven’t made a trade since June 22nd.

4:42
The last trade I made it was a winning trade. It was a good trade. It was like about 4.1%. Profit that I made on it. I haven’t made a trade since then. It’s not for a lack of trying. God knows I have tried. I put some trade setups out there for QLD for QID for SPY, for a number of different ones, both bullish setups and bearish setups, and they just haven’t taken yet.

5:02
And it’s a little frustrating. So I think where it really started reaching the pinnacle of frustration was this past Wednesday, the FOMC minutes were coming out. And I was probably maybe like $1 away from QQQ triggering. So QQQ. At this point in time, it’s trading at around $288 per share.

5:21
It’s about $1 off. I think my entry price was like 288.83. Well, I’ve seen enough FOMC minutes in my lifetime, and especially when they’re carrying increased importance, to know that a couple of minutes out from the FOMC minutes, I don’t really want to be having a live trade set up that could get easily triggered within like a first couple of seconds of the release.

5:42
It flashes higher. Triggers the trade and then it just crashes the rest of the day. So, in fact, that’s exactly what happened. It flashed, it triggered, and then it dropped for a little bit thereafter. I was feeling pretty good about that. I was like, OK, I avoided that one. And then it just marched right back up, went to new highs on the day and then it pulled back and set about where I bought it.

6:00
And then today, and I think this is the one where it kind of just really annoyed me. I still had the trade set up out there, but within the 1st 30 minutes, man, that market just took off and Left me in the dust, man. And I have a rule that I won’t take a trade within the 1st 30 minutes of a trading session.

6:16
It kind of sucks because when you have a good trade set up and it gets triggered in the 1st 30 minutes, then I’m looking to play a break of the highs of the day. But sometimes it can run so much in that 1st 30 minutes to where the reward to risk ratio gets skewed and you can’t take the trade. And that was essentially what I was dealing with on the queues.

6:33
I was dealing with pretty much like a almost a 6% stop offs and As that risk expands, the reward gets tighter. So not only is my risk increasing, but my reward is decreasing. It’s shrinking. So it rapidly shrinks the reward risk ratio when I’m getting in at a higher price than what I was originally wanting to get in at, and that’s.

6:55
I was dealing with. So I canceled the trade on the queues and that was frustrating because then I watched the rest of the day. I mean, literally on the hourly chart, the queues printed all green bars all day long and it finished up over 2%. So was it a horribly missed opportunity? No. I mean, I could have had 2% out of it, got.

7:13
July off to a decent start, didn’t get that. OK. But sometimes when you haven’t traded in a while too, I think that you almost take anything and that’s where the market can really suck you in because the market ultimately wants you to break your rules. That’s where it gets you because those rules are in place to keep you from sabotaging yourself, from you self-destructing.

7:35
So I could have chased after it right at the open today and done good by chasing after it right at the opening bell, because I had a feeling just watching that price action, we were on low volume, the market was rallying despite the fact those FOMC minutes were pretty hawkish, so they were going to do its thing regardless of what happened in the market today.

7:53
So I could have got in in the 1st 30 minutes of trading maybe right at the opening bell and made a good solid 2% on the day. But that’s what the market wants you to do. It wants you to get comfortable with breaking your own rules to make you almost doubt that your rules are out there to hurt you, not to help you. And so I might get away with it this time, but then on the next trade, let’s say it’s with meta and they got earnings coming up, and I’m saying to myself, man, you see what they’ve done in their previous earnings reports, there’s no way this thing’s gonna go down again.

8:21
And so I get long on it. It’s like, look, I was right about the whole 30 minute rule last time I decided to break that rule, I’ll break the earnings rule. And then it drops down 20% and I’m out 20% on that trade. Or maybe it comes down to ignoring a stop loss. Maybe you get away with it once or twice, but it’s that one time that you don’t get away with it that instead of taking a quick loser, you turn into a long-term bag holder.

8:42
And so the market ultimately wants you to break your rules. It wants to tempt you as much as it possibly can to make you work against your disciplines. Long term, the rules will save you. Maybe you get away with it in the short term, but long term, those rules will save you. There’s a reason why I’m staying in the game as long as I have.

8:59
There’s a reason why I continue to trade. There’s a reason why I’m profitable this year when 99% of the people are not. It’s because I follow my trading rules. I stay within my disciplines. And those who didn’t do that during 2020 and 2021 when the market was just at all-time levels of forgiveness towards people who broke their rules, they’re now eating crow.

9:20
But hey, one way not to eat crow is by signing up for swingtradingthestockmarket.com. There you’re gonna get my stock market research that I provide everybody with each and every day. That’s going to include the weekly watch list, both bullish and bearish. That’s also going to include the list of stocks that I’m considering as setups.

9:38
Each day, plus updates on all the big tech stocks. That’s gonna include meta, that’s gonna include Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, Microsoft, and Tesla. You’re also gonna get weekly updates on all the indices as well, so you’re always gonna be up on top of the market.

9:53
That’s swingtradingthestockmarket.com that helps with this podcast to continue its growth. So I mentioned earlier in the podcast episode that part of the success this year has been so much my winning trades, but one managing the losing trades, the way that I have, but then 2, The success has also been found in the waiting, and the waiting has been brutal.

10:13
Like right now. What am I going on like 3 weeks almost here? But I mean, I look at the charts and outside of the last 4 days, the market has done nothing but go sideways. It’s still kind of like in a sideways pattern. I can look at the S&P 500 right now and I put this out there on swingtradingthestockmarket.com. I was showing people, hey, look, we’re in a bear flag right now, on Spy, on the Qs, on the IWM, but we also have this bullish wedge that’s going on.

10:37
And so we’re breaking out of the bullish wedge, but we’re still in the bear flag pattern. And so there’s many reasons to have to wait on this market right now. And I didn’t make bad decisions by holding off and not making the trades, but just because I didn’t make the bad decision or make the wrong decision doesn’t mean that it feels good.

10:54
I wanted to be in on that trade today. I hated seeing the market go up and I had no action, especially when I had the trade out there and the market just didn’t give me the opportunity to get along in accordance with my risk reward parameters. Here’s another thing that’s frustrating. I’m a top-down trader. That means I want the S&P 500.

11:09
I want the sectors. I want the industries to be all aligned with the stock that I’m looking to trade. And so, there’s been a lot of good trade setups out there recently. With this 4 day rally, but I haven’t taken any of them. Why? Because the market’s not lining up with the sectors and the sectors aren’t lining up with the stock.

11:26
And so again, I’m having to pass up on good trade setups oftentimes because my top down trading strategy isn’t in alignment with the trades that I would like to personally take. And sometimes again, I’m missing out on good trades, but long term, these are my disciplines. This is what I stay in, and this is why I stay in the game.

11:44
And also a reason for not getting into some of these positions with individual plays is because the headline risk associated with earnings season right now. This is the time right now where a lot of companies are likely to come out and forecast lower earnings or to tell you up front before they even get to the earnings report saying, hey, just a little heads up on our earnings, it’s gonna suck.

12:05
And I’ve been stuck in those things. You don’t know that they’re coming. They just come out of the blue, usually before the market opens, and all of a sudden you’re bag holding for a. 7 or 8% to the downside, sometimes even worse. I’ve seen people get hit with like 30 or 40% losses because of those pre-earnings announcements.

12:20
And so if that was going to happen, it would be about right now before the earnings season gets kicked into high gear. And I really don’t want to get caught in that. I got caught in it with Apple and thankfully it was Apple because still, even if they have a pre-earnings announcement, most people still love the stock and it’ll, like what we see over the years, it goes back up.

12:37
So I didn’t get hit too bad on that one, but it was still 7% that I lost on that trade. And I also had these same kinds of frustrations in late 2021. I remember December, I was really getting frustrated with the market because I just didn’t think I was able to get into the trades that I was wanting to. I mean, the market was just going up each and every day and I’m like, this from a technical standpoint isn’t even making sense to me.

12:57
At this point, we’re seeing more and more stocks putting in 52 week lows, yet the market continues to print 52 week highs, and all-time highs for that matter. But sometimes when I’m starting to get frustrated because the market’s not working with me and trying to get to the long side, it often is a precursor to another market drawdown and we’re obviously in a bear market.

13:15
Nobody’s disputing that right now. And I still think that there’s another leg lower, so it’s very possible here that we’re sitting on the edge of another major leg lower in this market, and if that happens, I want to be ready and prepared to be able to take that trade. And this is also a perfect reason why I always talk to people who want to become full-time swinging traders.

13:33
You can go long stretches and not make. trade, not so much in the bull market, but definitely in a bear market because you got to be extremely careful because of those dead cat bounces. And it helps to have some kind of like a side gig or just a hobby to keep you interested. Maybe it’s like, you know, building Legos or something or doing model airplanes or I don’t know.

13:53
Whatever people like to do. I mean, for me, it’s SharePlanner. I love doing SharePlanner. I love, you know, being in the chat room each and every day on the trading block. I like doing the market research and providing that. I also love doing these podcasts and YouTube videos. So it’s all part of it for me. I do a lot of research throughout the day too, and I’m always looking at charts, probably like 1000 charts a day.

14:12
It’s crazy. But having something that can keep you interested when things are slowing down because not everybody’s gonna. Do the same kind of stuff that I’m doing. You can have your own little gig of some kind, but that can also help you to stay within your disciplines because all of your identity isn’t wrapped up into making the next trade.

14:30
And so for me right now, it’s hard because I do want to make that next trade. I’m ready to make that next trade, and yet I’m having to display enormous amounts of patience and not make a trade just for the sake of trading because I would rather not make a trade than make a trade and it be a loser, and it doesn’t mean that I won’t have losing trades.

14:47
I’ll have plenty of losing trades, plenty more losing trades this year, but the key is going to be staying within the disciplines and when those losing trades do happen. And I haven’t even had a losing trade since May 19th. I just looked it up before I did the podcast episode. I haven’t had one since May 19th, so, you know. If I can make it another 12 days without any losing trades, that’s almost 2 months.

15:04
I’ve never done that before, I don’t think. The point is, is to stay within the disciplines. Stay patient when you need to be patient. And right now, if the trades are not falling for you, if, in my case, if I’m not getting the trades to trigger in the risk reward parameters that I need them to using the top-down trading strategy that I use, following my rules about the 1st 30 minutes of trading, then I need to pass up on that trade, and I need to be patient for when things.

15:26
Do work and when things do align, and I can take that next trade. Bear markets are so much more different than bull markets. Bear markets require enormous amounts of patience. Bull markets don’t. Bull markets tend to just keep drifting higher. Yes, there’s pullbacks along the way, but for the most part, it’s up and up.

15:42
Bear markets are brutal. Consolidating markets can also be brutal because there’s so much more chop involved in a or in a sideways market. So those two markets, yes, you gotta have a lot more patience. If you look at the Russell 2000. Before it topped out, man, there was a lot of sideways trading in the small caps, required a lot of patience.

16:00
You had to wait probably for like a year for that index to really give you any kind of chance at playing it to the long side or short side. But to wrap it up, patience, guys, patience and waiting, there’s gonna be a lot of frustrations in it. But when I look back at my track record this year and in years past, I know that patience, especially in this market here with a bear market where patience is absolutely key, has kept me profitable.

16:23
Yes, I’ve made some really nice winning trades, and I’ve made some solid losing trades where I’ve kept the risk tight, but the difference has been that I’ve avoided probably 15 or 20 losing trades that I could have taken had I just thrown caution to the wind, had I not stayed within my disciplines, especially with that 1st 30 minute rule with how many fades we’ve seen following the 1st 30 minutes.

16:44
Man, it has really helped me out a lot. So there’s probably been about 15 or 20 trades that could have changed the whole course of the year had I taken all those. If you enjoy this episode, make sure to. Leave me a 5 star review. I really appreciate them. It really motivates me to keep providing you guys with some quality podcast episodes.

17:02
I plan on doing this as long as I’m able to. I love doing these things with you guys and make sure to check out swingtradingthestockmarket.com and send me your questions. I’ll be doing them again next week. So send me your questions, ryan@shareplanner.com. I do read them all and I try to make episodes for all of them. So thank you guys, and God bless.

17:18
Thanks for listening to my podcast Swing Trading the stock market. I’d like to encourage you to join me in the SharePlanner trading block where I navigate the stock market each day with traders from around the world. With your membership, you will get a 7 day trial and access to my trading room, including alerts via text, email.

17:35
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17:51
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at ryan@shareplanner.com. All the best to you and I look forward to trading with you soon.