Is The Stock Market Crashing Again | Podcast Episode #49

0:07
Learn to trade, stocks successfully, learn to profit consistently. I’m Ryan Mallory and on my weekly podcast, I’m going to teach you the in and out of a complex ever-changing stock market. You will learn to trade better trait, smarter and profit bigger.

0:26
Now let’s go trade. Everyone, this is Ryan Mallory with swing trading the stock market and I guess I have one question asked, is this stock market crashing? Are we going through the same thing? We just went through back in quarter for when the market fell like, well, over 20% within a three-month period.

0:44
Yeah, we’re back at all-time highs as of last week, but now we’ve seen pretty much all of April’s gains and the S&P 500 completely wiped out. And so today, we’re seeing a little bit of a bounce, or seeing a little bit of a desire for the market to hold the 50-day moving average.

1:00
Rich that it’s testing today, particularly out of the NASDAQ which has been by far the weakest of all the indices here today with my podcast. I’m usually talking about more Evergreen topics things that you can listen to and think about many years down the road, and there’s going to still be relevant today.

1:17
It’s not so much because I know that what people are probably more concerned about than getting more educated about the market is, what does the market doing right now? Because this is kind of scary stuff. I get it in emails, I get it in people who are just Giving up literally giving up after, like, six or seven days of trading.

1:35
And I mean, I’m there’s new people coming into the swing trading Splash Zone every day. And part of trading is having losses. You’re going to have losses. May has not been an easy month for me yet. I had a couple of winning trades, but so far it’s been kind of crappy, you know, a number of stop outs and everything else.

1:52
But the good thing is, is I’m keeping the risk. Type the risk isn’t getting away from me. Yeah, I’m taking some losses. But is that something that Worries me or makes me think that that I can’t come back from it, not at all. In fact, I’ve come back from far, worse months in the key is, is just keeping the risk in check keeping it under control because when you do have these big sellers, you’re going to have some pretty big bounces to that follow.

2:15
Now, another question that could be asked, why aren’t you getting short? I was actually was short. So, last Thursday, I got long on the ETF SPX you which is an inverse of the S&P 500. So if The S&P 500 goes up. 1%, I’ll go down, 3% of the S&P, 500 goes down, 2%.

2:34
I’ll go up 6 percent. I was banking on it going down. The problem is we had this little pesky rally on Friday that stopped me out of the tree. And then, of course, you had the trunk tweet over the weekend and we were opening up like, 40 plus points down. We rallied right out of the gate. So there’s no reason for me at that point to get short.

2:52
The S&P 500 though, I would have liked to have been short from the from the week prior. But nonetheless That’s just part of trading. Sometimes you miss a really brilliant trade by just a day or two. In fact, you go back a few years ago, I was stopped out of Lincoln 30 at sellin KD.

3:08
It’s not trade anymore was bought out by Microsoft, I was, but I was stopped out 30 minutes before on a Friday afternoon before the closed Monday morning. They get bought out by Microsoft that really stunk that, that was a real pisser. I mean, I was not happy about that at all. I mean, royally ticked things and trading are not always going to go by your playbook.

3:26
They’re not going to go the always the way you Spectrum to go. And so may is gone off to the Stars just been really weird ever since Monday rolled around with, with that trunk tweet that sent the markets lower. It’s been a really hard week. However, the key is to keep managing the risk to look for opportunities where the risk is really tight, but the reward is really big.

3:46
And so, even today, I’m taking a couple of stabs at trades that I think have a very low risk but High reward payout and we’ll see if that happens. So right now on the month, I’m about one percent down Do I expect us to keep going lower? I’m not sure I look for clues in the market, right?

4:03
I don’t see like heavy heavy, heavy Panic, selling in fact, today, you know, the S&P 500 is down, well over 30 points. Well, over one percent and the strongest tick reading that we’ve gotten so far in the day, was right at the open of – 1017, I saw similar numbers yesterday.

4:21
In fact, we didn’t even get anywhere near that yesterday, even though we were rallying most of the day until the very end when until decided to start opening its mouth and and poopoo in its guidance numbers. What I’m trying to say though, is that there hasn’t been extreme panic.

4:36
I haven’t seen ticks of like, 15 or 1600 in the – that’s what I’m used to seeing. Now, the breath has been pretty strong. I’ve seen breath numbers as much as 4 to 15 to 1, but even back in October. In November and December. We were seeing breath numbers of 7 8 and 9 to 1 to the downside and those are numbers when you know, okay, the selling is absolutely for real.

4:57
So I haven’t seen the same sense of freakish selling and panic-driven actions in the market that we saw back in again quarter four. The one thing that has been kind of interesting to me is usually, when you see the beginning of a sell-off, you’ll see the money start flowing into utilities and staples and you’ll actually see those go up while the rest of the market goes down. And even real estate too and sometimes telecom.

5:20
But in this one we’ve actually seen utilities, I mean they’ve been stronger than the rest of the market, but they still are going down pretty noticeably. I mean, they’re not being spared in this sell-off at all. So we’ve sliced through the 5-day moving average on the S&P 500, we sliced through the 10, the 20, and now we’re trading at or just above the 50-day moving average.

5:39
We traded below it this morning. And so I think that’s a real big key there. And if we can’t hold that, then I think we’re going to see 2,800. But you have to take it a day at a time. You have to keep managing risk, you have to keep the risk tight. If you don’t do that, then you are putting yourself in a position to really take some major heavy losses in this market.

5:56
So, don’t be surprised if you take losses in this market, it happens in trading. You’re not always going to be on the right side of the market. I’m not on the right side of the market to start this month. And right now I’m trying to get myself back on it, trying to make sure that the trades that I make moving forward are the correct ones. That doesn’t mean I revenge trade.

6:13
Meaning like if I get stopped out of Apple, right, like I was this morning, that doesn’t mean I go flip the script and say I’m going to get short now on Apple and I’m going to make that money back. No. You don’t do that. That’s revenge trading. That’s emotional trading. I could have been upset about getting stopped out of SPXU on Friday’s rally.

6:31
Only to see the market just tank on Monday, Tuesday, and today. And I could say, oh, screw it, I’m going to go ahead and get into SPXU and make some of that money back that I should have had, better late than never, right? It’s what a lot of people will say. That would have been a bad trade too. You have to take the trading environment for what it is right now, not what it did to you before or what you think it owes you, because it doesn’t owe you anything and it could care less what you got stopped out of before it made another move in the market that might have favored your position had you just held on a little bit longer.

7:09
With all that said, does that mean that stop losses should be just loosened up quite a bit in this market, or should we keep it very tight? Keep your stop losses tight. I got into TQQQ today, it is off to a pretty good start so far up about 3%. It may not work out for me, but I’m only risking about 1.2 percent on that trade, that’s not that bad.

7:31
Okay, so I’ve got risk on my side here in that I’m looking for a setup that will give me a substantial profit for what I’m actually risking. So this is going to be a brief podcast today. I wanted to check in with you guys. I wanted to let you know firsthand some of my thoughts on this market and where I see things going. There’s actually some pretty good setups out there.

7:50
There’s some good ones in Nvidia. I still think Apple is probably a bounce play. You have some stocks like Chipotle, they’re still hanging right up at their highs. AMD is another one that I think has held up somewhat well during the sell-off. I mean, it’s taken its licks but still. Netflix, CRM, Salesforce — that sucker is at a price support level that either it’s about to confirm a massive topping pattern or it’s going to bounce off of a major support level. So that’s one to watch in both directions.

8:05
So you have to go through the charts, spend the time, go through them. I keep posting ideas all the time so you can get them from me anytime you want, especially if you’re in the swing trading Splash Zone. But I also put them out there on the website too. If you have any questions, feel free to hit me up at ryan@shareplanner.com. I’m always here and willing to take your questions.

8:22
Sometimes, it might take me a little bit longer to get back to you depending on how many emails I’m getting in. I do try to get to them but I’m also a trader at heart, so I’m trying to do that first and foremost, while also providing you with the best and latest greatest trading opportunities that I think are out there.

8:42
So again, keep the risk tight, don’t get too crazy. Don’t take too many chances that you don’t need to take and God bless. Thanks for listening to this week’s podcast of Swing Trading with Ryan Mallory. I’d like to encourage you to join me in the SharePlanner Trading Block where I navigate the financial markets every day with traders from around the world.

8:58
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9:17
And follow me at SharePlanner on Twitter and on SharePlanner’s Facebook page, where I provide unique market and trading ideas every day. If you have any questions, please feel free to email me ryan@shareplanner.com or call the office at 321-522-6733. All the best to you and God bless.