I saw the futures on Monday, thought “hey, the week is off to a good start”. Woke up on Tuesday, preparing for the week, looked at pre-market futs and saw SPX down -22 points.
The market doldrums – they have been brutal of late. Not because they are creating losses, but because momentum isn’t necessarily being sustained. The market gains in the morning quickly fade into the afternoon, only to provide a token rally in the final 15 minutes of trading.
If you had looked at futures last night, you would have thought the bulls would have SPX up over 40 points heading into the final hour of the day, today. But no, we are at the same place that were were at when futures opened up at.
The Dow couldn't go up for ever, it had to experience a day in the red in the very near future. Today the time has come, and it is making its presence known, by wiping out more than two day's worth of gains for the bulls and to retest the breakout level on SPX's declining
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Whether Trump plans to pull out of the Iran deal remains to be seen. Personally, I think he pulls out, but you have conflicting reports between CNN, who says he stays, and Bloomberg who says he leaves.
Good start to the week. The bulls are certainly trying to run this market through the 50-day moving average. So far it is providing some resistance for the bulls, and that means we'll need to keep a close eye on things, to make sure we are ready to book gains, should another sell-off occurs again.
The bears were holding it together early on, and once we made new lows on the day, I’ll admit, it sucked me in. I have three long positions, and I went ahead and started to curb my long exposure by adding SDS (a 2:1 inverse of the returns on SPX).
The hardest part of earnings season is behind us. Last week required a lot of tricky navigation.
‘Da Bears are back in in charge. And just like that we are looking at another test of the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500 (SPX). On the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), you have a head and shoulders pattern forming, though not yet confirmed.