Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -2.1% lower.. 
  • Asian markets traded in excess of -2.3% lower. 
  • US futures are trading -1.5% lower ahead of the market open. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX had a significant sell-off on Friday, with heavy continuation today. 
  • The current uptrend remains intact above 1340, after that. A ‘lower-low’ would be put in place at a close below 1325, the latter of which would make this market notably bearish. 
  • Sell-off comes, after a few days being short-term overbought. 
  • Volume continues to increase over the past four trading sessions. 
  • On 7/18 we managed to break through the descending trend-line off of the 4/2 highs (see chart below). 
    • But not this is starting to look like an incredible ‘head-fake’.
  • Watch the SPRI that I posted this past Sunday and how it shows us near-ready for the reversal signal. 
  • Also note the price resistance the SPX is up against on the weekly chart. 
  • The VIX remains under 17. A push back above 20, would increase the bearishness of the market. 
  • 30-minute chart shows a nice channel uptrend being threatened by today’s early morning action. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Going to allow stops to do their work today, and let FB short run as much as possible. 
  • Stopped out of TPC on Friday at $12.08 from 12.43 for a -2.8% loss
  • Stopped out of CIE at $23.43 from $24.22 for a -3.3% loss. 
  • Did not add any new positions on Friday. 

 

Charts:

SP Market Analysis 7-23-12

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