Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading down -0.8% this morning.
- Asian markets finished -0.4% lower on the day.
- US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- Friday marked yet another day of consolidation – now on day 5.
- Today you will want to watch, with the pre-market weakness, whether we test and then hold the 10-day moving average. This is a classic ‘reload’ level for the bulls as you will notice from last Thursday.
- Often times this is the first sign of defense by the bulls in a soft pullback for the market to bounce from.
- 30-minute chart for SPX still has upward trend intact but with consolidation over the past 5 days.
- This pullback has been very healthy for the markets – orderly, low volume, and pulled us off of overbought levels as well as back inside the bollinger bands.
- Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return.
- Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
- Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support.
- Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1412.
- SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week.
- VIX at 14.
- One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
- If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold LEAP at $6.73 from $6.45 for a 4.3% gain.
- No new positions added to the portfolio Friday.
- Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board.
- ALXN stop-loss moved up to $111.50
- Stop-loss for NLSN at $29.80.
- Stop-Loss for WYNN increased to $111.50.
- Stop-Loss for BEAV adjusted to $41.60.
- Stop-Loss for IACI moved to $52.25
- Stop-Loss for PNR moved to $42.50
- Remain long TMO at $59.91, IACI at $52.59, PNR at $43.85, BEAV at $40.75, WYNN at $107.47, NLSN at $28.70, and ALXN at $102.53
- Track my portfolio RealTime here.