Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):

  • European markets are trading down -0.8% this morning. 
  • Asian markets finished -0.4% lower on the day. 
  • US futures are trading moderately lower ahead of the bell.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30am), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Friday marked yet another day of consolidation – now on day 5. 
  • Today you will want to watch, with the pre-market weakness, whether we test and then hold the 10-day moving average. This is a classic ‘reload’ level for the bulls as you will notice from last Thursday. 
  • Often times this is the first sign of defense by the bulls in a soft pullback for the market to bounce from.
  • 30-minute chart for SPX still has upward trend intact but with consolidation over the past 5 days. 
  • This pullback has been very healthy for the markets – orderly, low volume, and pulled us off of overbought levels as well as back inside the bollinger bands. 
  • Fed’s QE3 launch is going to add a lot of buying power to this market and drive more people out of interest-bearing assets and into equities in search of some kind of return. 
  • Going back years, there really is little in the way of resistance for the markets until it tests 1500.
  • Resistance at 1437 and 1440 was broken with little problem and now becomes support. 
  • Upward trend-line off of the 6/4 lows has rising support at 1412. 
  • SharePlanner Reversal Indicator confirmed the move higher this past week. 
  • VIX at 14. 
  • One area of concern is the 3 large gaps off of the 6/4 lows that remain unfilled, including 6/6, 7/26, 8/3
  • If another sell-off were to ensue, watch for a break and close below 1396 for a new lower-low in the market.  

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold LEAP at $6.73 from $6.45 for a 4.3% gain. 
  • No new positions added to the portfolio Friday. 
  • Current stop-losses have been adjusted across the board. 
  • ALXN stop-loss moved up to $111.50
  • Stop-loss for NLSN at $29.80.
  • Stop-Loss for WYNN increased to $111.50.
  • Stop-Loss for BEAV adjusted to $41.60
  • Stop-Loss for IACI moved to $52.25
  • Stop-Loss for PNR moved to $42.50
  • Remain long TMO at $59.91, IACI at $52.59, PNR at $43.85, BEAV at $40.75, WYNN at $107.47, NLSN at $28.70, and ALXN at $102.53
  • Track my portfolio RealTime here. 


SP 500 Market Analysis 9-24-12