Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): BZ (8.01), MI (6.85), MWV (26.37), CLMT (21.53)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 28% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), Wholesale Trade (10am)

My Observations and What to Expect:

  • Futures are showing moderate strength heading into the open.
  • Asian markets had a slight positive bias and European markets are showing strength in excess of 1%.
  • S&P poised to challenge recent highs at 1278. 
  • Current short-term trend-line has flattened some over the past two days due to intra-day dips. Not a bad thing, just the steepness of the trend-line itself cannot be held, and had to be moderated some. 
  • Be careful today of a failed test of recent highs that could create a strong intra-day reversal. 
  • Should we break through 1278, mid-1280’s are very achievable. 
  • Continue to watch the market’s relationship with the 10-day moving average, as the support level is becoming increasingly vulnerable over the past two days. Should we end up closing below the 10-day, watch how the market responds to the 20-day moving average, just underneath it, currently at 1257. 
  • The creation of a “lower-low” in this market would be if there is a break below 1251 and would essentially stall the trend out. 
  • No edge seen when it comes to volume. Been nearly identical each day this year, with the exception of yesterday which saw a small dip. 
  • Yesterday showed that dip-buying continues to persist, and that the bears do not have enough selling power, to get past it at this point. 
  • The more long-term trend-line dating back to 9/1 currently has support at 1234.
  • For the bears – The 10 & 20 day moving averages are within reach, and this may be one of the better opportunities to drive this market down and cause some technical damage on the charts. 
  • For the bulls – Break recent resistance at 1278 today. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

  • Could add 2-3 new positions to the portfolio. 
  • Raised the stop-loss in BZ, MI, MWV, & CLMT.
  • MI is on my sell list today if it is unable to make any substantial move. 
  • Day-traded SSO off of recent intraday-support yesterday for a 0.75% gain. 
  • Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.

You Might Like

  • The rise of the retail trader in the stock market.

    The Retail Trading Revolution: How Small Investors Are Reshaping the Stock Market

  • fading the gap

    Fading the Gap: How Large Overnight Moves in SPY and QQQ Play Out During the Trading Day

  • how to trade a bear flag

    How to Trade a Bear Flag