Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.8% lower.
  • European markets traded 1.3% lower. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Pending Home Sales Index (10), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • After a nasty gap lower, the SPX rallied 15 points to finish slightly in the green for the day. 
  • Last two trading sessions we have see the dip buyers flood the market and stabilize matters. 
  • Essentially, the market has been consolidating since 7/12 between 1672 and 1698. 
  • Throughout the entire month, the SPX seen extremely light volume levels. 
  • The entire month of July the SPX has traded above the 10-day moving average which is a huge testament to the strength of this market. 
  • With the consolidation at the highs, I think it is only a matter of time before we break the 1700 price level .
  • Considering the dip-buying of the past two trading sessions, I have little confidence that the light morning weakness we are seeing will hold throughout the day .Better than average chance, that the slight weakness gets bought. 
  • Interestingly enough, the SPX seems to also be finding support at the 1587ish level which represents the previous highs that the market reached back on 5/22. 
  • 30 minute chart breaks the downtrend that was in place with a nice higher-high. 
  • If we see any significant amount of selling today, you will want to watch the 1671-2 level as a significant short-term support level. Break below it, and you likely have a much heavier sell-off at hand. 
  • Pay no attention right now that the market is over-extended. Such conditions rarely matters with the Fed's involvement in the markets. 
  • VIX dropped with the market's rise and is at 12.72
  • This uptrend looks nearly the same as the one we saw on 4/19 and lasted until 5/19. I'm curious if it will lead to a similar extended pullback as a result. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Added APO at 26.86 on Friday. 
  • Sold SOHU at 69.73 due to earnings today at 2.7% gain. 
  • Closed MENT at 20.15 for a 1.9% loss. 
  • Closed WU at 16.99 for a 2.6% loss. 
  • Current Longs: ASML at 89.63, RCI at 40.65, HRB at 30.19, SJM at 104.63, BDX at 99.98, GOOG at 887.47
  • May look to take gains in stocks that are stagnant and replace them with better setups today. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

 

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