Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • Europe is trading 0.5% higher.
  • Asian markets traded 1.4% higher. 
  • US futures are slightly higher.  

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (9am), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (10am), State Street Investor Confidence Index (10am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Another huge performance for SPX yesterday to help the market rally over 30 points in the last two days and 100 points off of the November lows. 
  • SPX is getting overextended on the daily chart, as price has moved well outside of the upper bollinger band. Another day higher, would be good reason for me to book my gains where I can, because a  pullback will be likely. 
  • Volume was notably stronger yesterday than what we’ve seen in previous weeks. 
  • For the bears to regain control of this market, they need to first get price back below 1411. 
  • 30-min chart of SPX shows a solid uptrend in place, but is telegraphing the need for a short-term pullback. 
  • SPX pushed through the resistance mentioned yesterday at the neckline of the triple-top. 
  • Fiscal Cliff talks are improving, and will likely provide an underlying catalyst for the market. 
    • A deal is more likely than not at this point. 
  • SPX has reclaimed all significant moving averages. 
  • VIX is back in the 15’s. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold CMG at $292.85 from $278.15 for a 5.3% gain. 
  • Did not add any new positions yesterday due to the market getting overextended and not offering an ideal edge for new long positions. 
  • Remain long EW at $91.01, LULU at $73.01, BSBR at $7.03, PHG at $26.84, ADS at $144.99.
  • Stop-losses updated in LULU and BSBR
  • Here is my real-time swing-trading portfolio and past-performance

Chart for SPX:

S and P 500 Market Analysis 12-19-12

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