• narrow range trading

Technical Outlook:

  • S&P 500 (SPX) again on Friday attempted to sell-off but low volume again plagued any attempt from the bears to make a meaningful move across the board.narrow range trading
  • SPDRs S&P 500 (SPY) saw a drop in volume on Friday, which also came in well below average. 
  • SPX  has seen consolidation over the last five trading sessions and in an incredibly tight range. 
  • The five day-moving average is still holding strong, but the MA to watch going forward is the 20-day. 
  • When you put the daily bands around the market price action, there are only 28 points of separation between the upper and the lower – which is extraordinarily tight. 
  • The lower band is right in line with the key price support at around the 2155 level. 
  • CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to trade in the 11’s, with short-term support at 11. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart is extremely choppy over the last five trading days, but in the month of August has put in a nice series of higher-lows. 
  • United States Oil Fund (USO) has been on a very strong bounce of late, and could continue in a similar manner to the bounce off of the February lows. 
  • The Dow Jones Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has yet to clearly break through overhead resistance, which keeps in place the possibility of a double top forming. 
  • For the bears: push price back below 2171, and proceed through 2155. 
  • The bulk of the earnings season is behind us. No significant disasters from the big names that reported that negatively impacted the market as a whole. 
  • Overall, August is the worst performing month for the Dow and S&P 500. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I’d expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don’t expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don’t think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 

My Trades:

  • Sold Netflix (NFLX) on Friday at $96.66 for a 3.0% profit. 
  • Sold Las Vegas Sands (LVS) on Friday at $51.79 for a 1.1% profit. 
  • May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Will consider hedging the portfolio as well with a short position. 
  • Currently 50% Long / 50% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-15-16

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