• brexit

Technical Outlook:

  • For the third straight day, SPX reversed off of its highs of the day, with yesterday being the strongest instance yet. brexit
  • Interestingly enough, the VIX 14.6% yesterday to 21.17 – a massive move for such a small decline. 
  • This is in part due to the fears surrounding a British vote to leave the European Union today. 
  • However odds makers overnight have lessened the chances of a leave to 5 to 1 overnight. 
  • Polls are already open. Results will start being reported at 7:30pm eastern, and the final tally will be known at roughly 2am (eastern). 
  • Expect continued volatility from the market. 
  • If there is a vote to leave the (i.e. Brexit) then the markets will be rocked hard tomorrow, especially since price action has been favorable towards a vote of “remain” so far this week. 
  • SPX 30-minute chart has a double top that has formed, though, that will be broken to the upside this morning with current strength that is seen. 
  • The  20-day moving average continues to offer resistance. 
  • The VIX is currently up  47% over the last twenty days, yet SPX is UP 0.45% during that same time. The last time and only time that has ever happened before is 1999. 
  • Also, the market has not moved down 1% in more than 53 days. The longest streak since the summer of 2014. 
  • On the daily SPY/SPX there is a massive double top forming. No confirmation yet, as it would have to drop below 2025 in order to do so. 
  • The choppiness and unpredictable nature of the market between 2040 and 2138 continues with price just bouncing and dropping every which way. 
  • I believe, at this point, profits have to be taken aggressively, and avoid the tendency to let the profits run – the market is in a very choppy range that has mired stock price for the past two years. Unless it breaks out of it and onto new all-time highs, then taking profits aggressively is absolutely important. 

My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-23-16

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