Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.5% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 0.9% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
MBA Purchase Applications (7), Durable Goods Orders (8:30), GDP (8:30), Corporate Profits (8:30), PMI Services Flash (9:45), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • SPX saw a hard sell-off yesterday to take price all the way down to the 10-day moving average before bouncing 2 points. 
  • On the 30-minute chart, SPX has dropped 10 straight bars, which is something you’ll hardly ever see. I’d expect to see a bounce early on in this market. 
  • GDP came in at -2.9% which is a jaw-dropping number and beyond what analysts expected. However, bad news of late has been good news for the market as it has typically led to more fed intervention. 
  • Volume came in strong on the SPY yesterday. 
  • VIX saw a radical spike of more than 11% to 12.13. 
  • Very little damage has been done to the market at this point. Now isn’t the time to panic. Wait for clear technical damage before you start heavily flipping the portfolio to the short side. 
  • The price action is setting up in a very similar fashion to what we saw earlier this month during the 3 days of selling. 
  • Lots of distribution showing up on the SPX 30-minute chart. 
  • It has been over two months since SPX saw a move of more than 1% (4/16/14).
  • If the market is inclined to pullback here, a hold of 1925 is essential for the bulls. Otherwise it will be creating a short-term lower-low. 
  • The rising trend-line off of 4/14/14 currently sits at 1922. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Trades:

  • Closed out TSLA at 236.26 for a 3% gain. 
  • Closed out GPOR at 63.24 for a 2.8% loss. 
  • I added one additional long position yesterday. 
  • Will look to add 1-2 new long positions today if the market ultimately bounces. Also haven’t ruled out establishing new short positions. 
  • Remain long FB at 66.63.
  • 20% Long / 80% Cash
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-25-14

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