• SP 500 Market Analysis 8-18-15

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX pulled back yesterday to the triangle breakout area, but held the 20 and 50-day moving averages. 
  • The bears have had opportunities-galore over the past few weeks to drive this market lower. A push into the mid-2070’s and below the 200-day would greatly change the landscape of this market in the bear’s favor.
  • SPY volume continues to be just absolutely awful, as is price action, which doesn’t seem to want to go anywhere fast. 
  • VIX rose 5.9% yesterday up to 13.79. There was a steady increase through out the day on the volatility indicator. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart sporting a respectable bull flag pattern, but likely to be nullified with the market weakness at the open. Inverse head and shoulders patter still very much in play here. 
  • The inverse head and shoulders pattern on SPX spanning back to June is still intact, though let me just say, it is the messiest pattern you could possibly ask for. 
  • For the bears, the object of their affection should be the 200-day moving average and getting price below it at the close. Of late, that has represented a very stubborn level of support. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above the 40-day moving average) is holding up pretty good at 39% compared to where it had been of late. Still at the top of the recent range. 
  • A view is emerging that a rate hike in September might be off the table. Today’s Fed minutes may shed more light on this area. 


My Trades:

  • Did not add any positions yesterday.
  • Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
  • 50% Long / 50% cash. 
  • Remain long: SBUX at 56.37, UPRO at 67.17, AAPL at 114.64, NFLX at 123.45, FB at 94.66.
  • I have enough capital at work at this point so I am only likely to add new positions today if I am to close another position currently in the portfolio. I could increase portfolio exposure if the market makes large strides and and through key resistance levels. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 8-18-15

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