Today’s Trading Plan: Can It Keep Going

Technical Outlook:

• Dow Jones Industrial snapped a 9-day winning streak. Last two times that has happened, it made it to 10-days. Not so yesterday. 
• SPX finished lower as well yesterday and below the 5-day moving average (by one point). 
• Again though, the rampers showed up at 3:30pm to push the market off of the lows. 
• Still the market isn’t showing any major willingness to sell this market off hard or fast. 
• Volume on the sell-off has been extremely weak which is a good sign there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm to the sell-off. 
• Watch 2155 on SPX – a break of this price level could lead to further selling today. 
• So far the bulls have only been willing to work off overbought conditions through time and not through a pullback. Most clearly seen over the last two years that the market consolidated. 
• Earnings season kicks into high gear next, particularly among the tech sector and will define the week as a whole. 
• The trade to the upside can be categorized as the “pain trade” or “climbing the wall-of-worry” – that’s because this rally is hated by most traders. Heck,I don’t like it either, but I trade it because that is what the market is giving us right now. 
• Shockingly, following the Brexit, just a little less than a month ago, SPX now has 2200 in its sights. 
• The market trend-line is clearly starting to flatten out some. 30 point moves on SPX will be much more difficult to achieve.
• VIX saw a strong spike yesterday, rising 8% to just under key resistance at 13. 
• Oil appears overdue for a bounce here. 
• At this point, and with the election ahead, I’d expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don’t expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don’t think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
• Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

• Closed out NFLX today at $86.15 for a 0.3% profit. 
• Did not add any new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
• May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
• Will consider hedging the portfolio as well with a short position. 
• Currently 50% Long / 50% Cash
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: