Today’s Trading Plan: Calm Before The Vote

Technical Outlook:

• SPX has day four of one of the most dull dead cat bounces that you’ll ever see. With that said, the sell-off that preceded it was quite dull in its own right, with one of the most shallow five day pullbacks you’ll ever see. 
• The volume continues to melt away for a third straight day and coming in well below recent averages. 
• While the 10-day moving average was recaptured by SPX yesterday, it is nonetheless still having troubles with the middle band (20-day moving average) as price saw a rejection right around that area yesterday. 
• For the bulls the objective remains to get price back above the 2100 level as fast as possible. 
• Brexit remains a stretch, even if the “Leave” camp wins the vote. As it would still take a lot for the ‘powers-that-be’ to actually facilitate the exit. 
• Oddsmakers put a “Leave” vote at 3-to-1.
• 30 minute chart of SPX shows the start of a broken trend-line going back to 6/16. 
• On the daily SPY/SPX there is a massive double top forming. No confirmation yet, as it would have to drop below 2025 in order to do so. 
• VIX continues to bounce off of support and despite the market being up yesterday, VIX finished with a slight finish higher, but a nice bounce off of the lows of the day. 
• 2085 continues to offer support/resistance on the daily SPX, but the last two times it has had it as resistance, SPX has simply gapped over it, as it did yesterday. 
• With so many assuming that a Brexit will not occur, the market is therefore pricing this in already. As a result, you have to wonder, regardless of the outcome, if the Brexit vote will be a “sell-the-news” event. 
• The main objective for bears at this point has to be to push price back below 2050 from last week. 
• The choppiness and unpredictable nature of the market between 2040 and 2138 continues with price just bouncing and dropping every which way. 
• I believe, at this point, profits have to be taken aggressively, and avoid the tendency to let the profits run – the market is in a very choppy range that has mired stock price for the past two years. Unless it breaks out of it and onto new all-time highs, then taking profits aggressively is absolutely important. 

My Trades:

• Did not close out any positions yesterday. 
• Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
• Will look to add 1-2 new positions today depending on the market’s direction. 
• Currently 20% Long / 10% Short / 70% Cash
• Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX: