Pre-market update (updated 8:30am eastern):
- European markets are trading 0.2% lower.
- Asian markets traded 0.4% lower.
- US futures are flat
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Redbook (8:55am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- The slightest of pullbacks yesterday, but might have been enough for the market to continue advancing forward based on past precedent.
- I think that we are likely to see more consolidation this week, as there is little in the way of news that can affect the market’s outlook.
- Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620.
- My biggest concern, and the reason why I think we will ultimately see some consolidation here, is how far removed the SPX is from the rising trend line off of the November lows.
- There is a good deal of intraday support on the 30 minute chart with support lying at 1660.
- Continue to follow the 10-day moving average and whether price on any pullback can hold this price level.
- Yesterdays sell-off was (albeit a small one) was out of exhaustion, not due to any true bearishness.
- Strong spike in the VIX taking it back up to 13.
- I’m not to concerned about this market at this point. I think you want to keep stops tight in case of reversal, but not be afraid to add new opportunities where they exist.
- Eventually the equities bubble we are in right now will burst, but until then, you have no choice but to trade to the long side.
- I do have big reservations about whether this market can truly get up to 1700 as quickly as it is trying to do. It has gone straight up since crossing 1600, and bulls have become gluttons in their market outlook.
- Traders will point at the fact that we are overbought but we have been since April – move on, nothing to see there.
- We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess obf 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- No new trades yesterday.
- Simply tightened the stops in most of my positions.
- Sitting on nearly 30% gains in the portfolio.
- Will more than likely close out one position today, and swap it out for a new setup.
- Will look to tighten up my positions even more today and their stop-losses.
- Remain Long RLGY at 48.49, JCI at 35.22, GRA at 79.03, WOOF at 24.40, DG at 52.75, CMG at 374.07, AAP 86.07, HOS 52.97.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:

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