Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.1% lower.
  • European markets are trading flat. 
  • US futures are trading 0.2% lower. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45), International Trade (8:30), Redbook (8:55), JOLTS (10), Treasury STRIPS (3)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Despite a slight pullback yesterday, the bulls held strong near the highs, and evidence of dip buyers showed as well, providing a nice floor to any selling. 
  • With the rally off of the 6/24 lows you have now a higher-low and a higher-high in place, which is no doubt healthy. 
  • Of concern is the steepness of the trend-line, which will find difficulty in sustaining itself, so don't worry yourself if there are violations of the trend-line that lead to a more 'flattening' of it. 
  • Just like yesterday that 1700-01 level on the SPX remains critical for the markets today. 
  • Volume was remarkably light yesterday. 
  • Moving averages haven't played a significant part in the current rally as we will sometimes see, so I would place little importance on them going forward. 
  • It is really necessary to push higher off of the 1700 launch pad, and establish a much more concrete higher-high that is far above the previous consolidation. 
  • 30-minute chart showing some consolidation near the highs since last Thursday between 1700 and 1709.
  • Once we become overbought on the SPX as we are now, we tend to stay there for quite a while. 
  • Ideally, any selling pressures that we might see today, needs to 'preferably' hold 1700-1701. But what should be considered absolutely critical is the 1671-1676 level. 
  • The steepness of the current trend-line has rising support at 1701.
  • There is little, and I mean almost no reason to be short this market right now. None. Not with the Fed's policy or until that changes. 
  • When we crossed 1600, the SPX ran non-stop all the way up to 1686 before pulling back.
  • 1676 is a very key level for this market in the case of a sell-off. That would create a new lower-low. 
  • May and July saw strong beginning of the months. Let's see if it continues with August. 
  • VIX dropped into the 11's. 
  • I remain a buyer in this market. The opportunities to swing short are far too unpredictable, choosing to focus on the long side is the best way to manage risk and maximize profits at this juncture. 
  • Markets don't care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 

My Opinions & Trades:

Chart for SPX:

 

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