Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Quarterly Services Survey (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am), Consumer Credit (3pm)
The Breakdown:
- Futures are slightly negative heading into the open and tumbling well off of their session highs.
- Asia, as a whole, traded about 1.6% higher. Europe is currently trading slightly in the red.
- S&P has for the second day been rejected off of the 200-day moving average and the downward trend-line coming off of the 7/7/11 highs.
- While I’d like to say this is bearish, it really isn’t, because it hasn’t resulted in a major sell-off on the overall day. Despite the rejection at these key resistance levels, the S&P finished both days in the green.
- Volume reading dropped off yesterday on the S&P.
- Little has changed for the market since yesterday.
- It is becoming very apparent that there is a huge disconnect between the US and Europe and the correlation with Asian markets. The Asian markets do not share our optimistic European outlook of late.
- We are trading in a perfect channel (see chart below). Main focus at this point should be on the trend-line that started off of the 7/7/11 highs, and has proceeded downward ever since. If we break that downward trend-line, it will mark a bullish shift in sentiment for the markets.
- Currently resistance for the trend-line lies at 1268.
- We are overbought in the short and intermediate time-frames.
- Three days in a row that we’ve seen the market fade noticeably off of its highs, which tells me traders are more concerned with securing profits at this juncture.
- Be very suspicious of the longevity and legitimacy of this market. To me it just reeks of another overdone bear-market rally, which tends to be extreme and exaggerated when they occur. This kind of action is not conducive to a bull market.
- If the head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart holds, then there is limited upside in the market from there.
- My Conclusion: I’ve grown bearish on this market in the short-term. The intraday price action is weakening. The risk is to the upside, and there seems to be much more reward building bearish positions in the short-term.


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