Federal Reserve

According to the CME Group, odds for a rate cut over the last week has jump to 98% likelihood.

Fed allowed another $30B to run off its balance sheet this month.

Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Fed essentially let 0.4% ($27b) of the balance sheet run off last month. That's not going to make much of a dent.

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Fed let 15 billion in assets run off their balance sheet - a drop in the bucket basically.

There was heavy Fed liquidity injections in the first two, 2025 bounce has seen none of that.

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Fed Funds Rate expected to see 5 interest rate cuts over the next 12 months despite hot economic data.

There's zero reason to be lowering interest rates here. It'll only spike inflation again.