Hurricanes And Trade Reviews | Podcast Episode #63

0:00
Hey, everybody, this is Ryan Mallory doing a new swing trading podcast with you on Swing Trading the Stock Market. You can check it out on iTunes. You can get it on, um, all my previous episodes, actually. I think there’s about 63 or 64 total episodes that I’ve done to date, and, uh, I, I, all of them are worth checking out.

0:17
They’re all evergreen, they’re all worth giving a good listen to. So this is like the post hurricane podcast. I, I actually, believe it or not, had two attempts at a podcast last week, and, and both times, for whatever reason, I screwed up the audio and things are so hectic that it was just, it got to a point where, you know, I, I couldn’t, I couldn’t put the time into trying it a third time because we’re trying to make hurricane preparations, trying to, you know, make sure food, water, all that stuff. I have an 11 year old boy. I was making sure that he was being taken care of. So it was, it was a hectic week last week and it’s been hectic this week too. I mean, it’s like Thursday and it feels like a Monday, quite honestly, even though I’ve been trading since, uh, Tuesday and when the, when the markets opened back up, it, it’s still been a pretty crazy time.

0:59
I mean, I, um, I feel like today’s really like a Monday and it’s Thursday, but. Yeah, I mean, I mean, Hurricane Dorian was really nothing more than a, uh, thunderstorm. In fact, I was, I was telling some guys down in the bar below is that if, if that, if I didn’t know anything about there being a hurricane out there, I would have thought this was nothing more than an afternoon thunderstorm.

1:21
Maybe even weaker than our typical Florida thunderstorm. I mean, you get these thunderstorms in the afternoon, they’re like 5 minutes long, and they give you a lot of lightning and some wind and everything else, and then they go away and it’s sunny again. It’s kind of like what it was with Dorian. We, I, I honestly couldn’t even tell you when we actually got hit by the storm. Um, all I know is we were waiting forever for it to get out of the Bahamas and God bless them because they actually did get hit. But the thing is, for, for us in Florida, I don’t know. I, I, I, I really question whether or not getting prepared is, is really worth it. I mean, every time I’ve, I’ve, I’ve dealt with this, yeah, we’ve had some pretty good sized storms and everything, but you don’t have to prepare weeks in advance for this thing.

1:59
Wait for it to where you know where that cone is going to be, where, where it’s obvious. In about 24, 48 hours before the storm actually hit us, it was pretty obvious it wasn’t going to hit us. So, um, You know, but, but, but before that, everybody was talking about, oh man, this is gonna be cataclysmic event for people on the east coast of Florida. You’re gonna get destroyed. And that was like the furthest thing from the truth. We didn’t get hit. And I think a lot of times too is that you see these hurricanes, they’ll peak at like 160, 16, they’ll they’ll basically be a Category 5 hurricane. And they’ll, they’ll peak way before they even get to the islands and stuff, and people are like, oh my gosh, this thing’s gonna be 250,000 mile an hour wind by the time it gets to Florida.

2:41
And the, and the crazy thing is, it’s not. What happens is these things always peak early. Every time I’ve seen these things get. monstrous. They peak early. By the time they get to Florida, they’re maybe about 2/3 of what they were before. So if it’s 150, it’s like 100. The case of like, Dorian it was like peaking at what, 185 miles an hour, and now, uh, like skirted the coast, not even skirted, it was like outside of the coast at 110 miles an hour.

3:03
And that’s what they typically do because you have all these islands and it, they get all beaten up and everything. Maybe that’s not always the case with uh the Carolinas, but then again, the water’s a little bit cooler up there too. It’s like the, the, the Gulfstreams a lot warmer, and that’s what feeds, feeds these hurricanes and everything to, to maintain their, their, uh, Their strength when they hit shore.

3:24
But if they’re, if they’re peaking at 150 way out in the middle of the Atlantic or right before it hits all the different islands like the Bahamas or Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico, I mean, that, that, that’s, that’s really where you’re going to see the, the hurricane falter, you know, um, because those, those islands have mountains and they just, you know, the, the islands, the islands break up the storm a little bit. They weaken it every time. So I guess, saying all that, I guess the, the big, the big thing for me going forward is, is that, man, I’ll just run around with my chick, like a chicken with its head cut off 24 hours before the storm runs, get, gets ready to hit us.

4:00
That, that’s what I’m gonna do next time. I’m telling you, shutters are such a pain in the butt. It takes a half day to put him up, half day to take him down. Luckily, I wised up on the 2nd day or taking them down. I asked, asked my son to, to help me out with it. He was out there with the drill, drill. I was doing the heavy lifting. We got knocked out maybe like 1 hour, 1 hour and a half. It was a good thing, so. Any case, let’s talk about the August trades. I’m a little bit late in talking about this. It’s September 5th as when I’m doing this recording. So we’re about 5 days into the, to the new month. However, August was kind of important. I still have one trade actually open still.

4:33
I thought I would have had to. And I’ll get to that in a second, but the month of August seemed like an incredibly long trading, um, month. It it was long, it was arduous, it was tiresome. Um, there was this like 4 or 5 week chop that stretched into September and actually today, the market’s finally breaking out of that chop if it can hold it into the clothes. 50 day moving average acted as resistance, 150 day moving average acted as support.

5:01
And between those, the market couldn’t do anything. It just couldn’t break. We, we sold off early on in the month of August. I made, made a couple of good trades in SDS, SPXU, uh, again in SPXU. uh, SPXU has been kind of a good trade for me of late. I gotta be honest, I traded at one. See, 2344 times. I sound like I’m a dude from the Reading Rainbow or something, you know, accounting for you. Uh, but now, um, I think like 4 times, I think I was profitable on 3 of them. There was some other positions I took, really the short shorting is what made my month.

5:34
I, I had some decent long trades, but. S SBUX Starbucks. I bought that sucker on 8/20 and this is, this was, this was such a frustrating trade yesterday. I bought it on August 20th, $97. It really hasn’t done anything for me. It never went down.

5:50
Well, it did go down, you know, a couple of days there and then it popped back up and it was actually starting to look profitable. And then we had the, the gap up yesterday and it looked like it was going to be a really solid trade. Except for the fact that they like guided their annual growth rates to to like much lower than expected.

6:08
That took the stock down like 2 or 3% of the pre-market below my stock, I’m out. I actually bounced back close to where it broke even at from the previous day, so. But you gotta follow the stop losses. Look, I, I could have made a speculation saying, oh, I think it’ll bounce back. But I would say more times than not when you get really bad news about earnings or future earnings or growth or anything like that.

6:30
You’re, you’re gonna see a pretty nasty haircut on the stock. And so it’s not worth risking. It’s not worth risking that it’s gonna get bought back up. Starbucks actually recovered pretty good. I really don’t regret getting out of it. Um, I regret the fact that we got knocked down and and taken out at 9440 for a 2.6% loss.

6:48
We, we’re actually looking at a, at a possibility for it to run here. Apple, Apple, I’m still in it right now. I got in at 20886. Finally, it’s profitable today. But that, that’s mainly because I, I’ve, I’ve been holding that one since the 29th. I thought it would have broken out a little bit earlier.

7:04
It didn’t. Market had some weird gyrations in between. But it, it, it’s up, it’s up about 1.6% for me today. Now going back to the beginning of the month. Good grief. I really wish I would have held on to McDonald’s. I think that might, might have been my worst trade of the month, quite honestly.

7:21
That was one that I really, and and when I, when I judge um my best trades and worst trades, it’s not based off of percentages alone. I actually made a very small profit off of McDonald’s, very small, but I judge it in the manner in which I traded this the stock.

7:36
So McDonald’s, even though I didn’t lose any money on it, I actually consider probably my worst trade of the month because I wasn’t patient enough with it. Um, it pulled back some, it never acted like it was gonna go up. I, um, we got a little bit into the green. I raised the stock loss very aggressively and, um, just.

7:52
I wasn’t going to let it go, go red on me anymore. Um, I had held on to it from August 1st through the August 7th. It really not that much time. I probably should have been more patient with it, like I said, You know, the stock went all the way up to like 220 something before, you know, it finally settled down right after I got out of the stocks.

8:08
So and it was literally like the next day. It’s, it was a frustrating trade to to see how it played out eventually. I was right on the, the trade’s direction. I was just poor on the management of the trade. Dell, I took a 2% loss on it, right?

8:24
Now you would think, OK, that seems a lot worse than McDonald’s, but I actually feel like that was one of my better managed trades of the month. Yes, 2% loss one of my better managed trades. Was it, was it a good trade to have originally gotten into? I mean, it was setting up pretty nice at a cup and handle and everything else, but when I got into it.

8:39
It just immediately started selling off. I took a 22% lick on the same day, so I got in on August 1st, and got out of August 1st, then then the next day it was like down 10%. I don’t even remember why it was down 10%. I think it might have been about the China tariffs and uh Dell just, you know, getting beat up with the rest of the retailers.

8:56
So yeah, that that that was actually probably one of my better traits because I felt like I managed it well and I, I saw the writing where the trade was null and void, and I needed to get out of the trade, so. Um, but yeah, SPXU did pretty good for me on the month. Um, I even had a good trade in SDS for 3.2%.

9:12
I had a losing trade in SDS, the following day, uh, or a couple days later for a 1.7% loss. But overall, I, I, I’ve been pretty happy with it. Now that, now the best trade in terms of percentage return was shop. Pretty well managed too.

9:28
I got out at 39,010. I’m actually currently in the trade right now, uh, at like 389, so a little bit lower than where I got out at. Um, and so far it really hasn’t done too much for me. I’m, I’m essentially break even and earlier today I thought I was gonna get stopped out of it because, uh, it was just acting so, so weird, right?

9:46
Uh, but it, it’s come back, you know, well, and it, and it’s looking, looking pretty, you know. Pretty nice here going into the afternoon. But shop, I made 9% off of this trade. I got in at at 3. Uh, trying to remember. I’m trying to look at my charts here to see where I got in at here to tell you the exact number.

10:03
I got in it. 357 54, got out at 339,010. It was a good trade. It, it set up nicely. It broke out and I would have liked to have gone out at 400. It, it did get up to 400, but I was aggressive on the profit taking. Um, I could have, I could have made about 401 at 402 on that trade.

10:23
Maybe been up like 11 or 12%. However, I, I still think I managed to trade well. I, I booked the gains on exhaustion when it or when it starts showing signs of exhaustion. And then eventually it did. It came right back down into like the 370s. So I was right on about getting out of the trade just maybe it was a day or two early.

10:40
Overall, in the month of August, the S&P was down like what, 23, 4%. I’m, I was up on the month and so I, I have nothing to really hang my head about. It was a good month of trading. I’m happy about it. There’s a couple of things I wish would have gone a little bit better for me, um. The Starbucks trade being one of them, the McDonald’s trade being another.

10:58
Starbucks, I can’t do anything about that. I don’t know when they’re going to report that kind of nonsense. That’s why I’m very selective about the stocks that I do trade. COUP was a trade that. I was eventually would have been right on it, but it just, there was just too much gyration in that breakout that it just made it for a very messy and sloppy trade that I lost 2.6% on.

11:17
But overall, I, I mean, I was, I was good on the month. I, I feel like overall I managed my trades very well. My, my biggest winner was a 9% gain. My My biggest loser was SDS, which was like a 3.7% loss. So I let my winners run.

11:33
I let my, I cut my losers short and um overall I think it was a good month.

11:49
So if you wanna, you wanna be with me in the Trading Block, then I highly encourage you to try it out. It’s a free seven-day trial. You got nothing to lose. And um if you don’t like it, you can cancel it at any time, but I, I have a great community of traders. I mean, I learned from them every single day. I mean they, they’re bringing things to my attention, trade setups that I’ve never seen before. It’s just a really solid place. And I apologize too for the for the motorcycle. I work out of a downtown environment. I can’t really control some of the ambient noises on the outside. Well, but any case, I won’t keep rattling here. Check out the SharePlanner or Trading Block. www.shareplanner.com/trading-block, and I think you’ll like it. Thank you. Take care. God bless.