What I Have Learned | Podcast Episode #200

0:07
Hey, I’m Ryan Mallory, and this is my swing trading, the stock market podcast. I’m here to teach you how to trade in a complex, ever changing world of finance. Learn what it means to trade profitably and consistently, managing risk, avoiding the pitfalls of trading, and most importantly, to let those winners run wild.

0:25
You can succeed at the stock market, and I’m ready to show you how. Hey everybody, this is Ryan Mallory with Swing Trade in the stock market and got a good episode, episode number 200 for you guys today. And I’m gonna have like a little bit of a Jerry Seinfeld moment and go back and reflect on what have I learned?

0:44
What have I learned from you guys? What have I learned just from my own personal trading during this time and what are some of the lessons, some of the most important lessons that I can pass along to you in this epic number 200 podcast episode. And what am I drinking? Well, I gotta make it a good bourbon if this is gonna be my 200th episode.

1:02
And I’ve been saving this one. It is Blanton’s straight from the barrel. Guys, this thing is amazing. It is 64.6% alcohol that gives it a proof of 129.2%. It’s barrel number 148 and Warehouse H on Rick number 10 bottled on August 18th, 2020.

1:26
Guys, this thing smells amazing. It’s like going into the deli and asking for a sugar cookie when you were a kid at the grocery store. That’s what it reminds me of when I smell just this beautiful, sweet smelling sugar cookie. And the color is phenomenal, man.

1:42
I love it when you have a good color to the bourbon. It’s like looking into the eyes of a brown-eyed girl, my wife specifically there. And when you taste it, man, you gotta taste it with small sips because this is a bourbon that will last you, a pour will last you a good hour at least.

1:58
Small sips. It comes in hot. Let me tell you though, it’s nice and smooth and it has a like a really refreshing taste. And that he, it lingers too afterwards, the finish is solid. It even tingles the lips for a while. It’s that amazing. I mean, it just has all sorts of sensations to it.

2:15
It’s really that good. I’m gonna give it a 9.8. This is the best bourbon I’ve ever had. I’ve yet to have pappy’s and there’s a few others that I’ve yet to have. I mean, good luck you’ve been trying to find pappy’s. I’d take a sample if I could find it somewhere. But today, this is my favorite one. Blanton’s straight from the barrel.

2:32
It’s like sipping on the fountain of youth. And if anyone should so much even dare to mix this. And make a cocktail out of it. Well, that should be a crime against humanity. So, getting to this number 200th episode, what have I learned?

2:49
Like I said, this is kind of like a, a Jerry Seinfeld milestone episode where he looks back on past episodes and reflects. That’s what I’m going to do here, not so much on the individual episodes, but really, what are some of the things that I’ve learned from you guys and also what are some of the things that I’ve just learned as a traitor during this time?

3:08
Because just because you have a podcast or just because. You’ve been training for a long time doesn’t mean you stop learning. You’re always learning, you’re always trying to get better, and you guys challenged me to get better. Over the years, I have felt more compelled than ever to gain more knowledge to get better at my craft because one of the things I’ve learned is how thirsty for knowledge you guys are.

3:26
I started this podcast out a long time ago, not even hardly understanding what a podcast was, and I’m thankful to the show’s sponsor. Spotify, and I’m thankful to the numerous advertisers over the years that have helped support it, as well as all of you that go to swingtradingthestockmarket.com to support the podcast and receive all of my market research each and every week along with trade setups, watchlists and, and market index updates.

3:51
You guys have supported it so much through the years. I’m thankful for that, but I’ve learned just how much you guys’ thirst for knowledge. Yes, there’s a huge segment of people out there that just want to get into the stock market to get rich right out of the gate. But I’ve always kind of took pride in the fact that I’m usually everybody’s second choice when it comes to learning how to trade stocks because the first choice is to throw money at something like a Wall Street bet stock or to just throw something at a penny stock and think that you’re gonna get rich the next day.

4:21
And then reality sets in that you realize, hey, this stock trading is not like what it’s cracked up to be or what I hear people at the water cooler talk about it as we’re on the Reddit message boards. It’s actually hard and they take your money and they don’t give it back when you lose. I need to learn something here and then I usually get you guys.

4:38
That’s where I usually come in, my podcast, my website. You guys usually come in and find me as your go to person only after you’ve exhausted the resources of all the get rich quick schemes that are out there. And when I started this podcast, I didn’t expect myself to eventually evolve into drinking whiskey and answering your emails, but your emails have really been what makes this show important and probably only 0.1% of you guys even send me emails.

5:02
You guys don’t even realize how easy it is to actually get on this show with your emails because so many people think, oh, because he’s had over a million listeners in the past year, he probably doesn’t have the time to read my email. I read every one of your emails, and if it’s a good email, I’ll make a show out of it. So make sure that you keep sending those ryan@shareplanner.com.

5:21
And I’ve been able to see a lot of you guys turn around your trading careers. I’ve got in the emails. I’ve seen the reviews where you guys have actually been able to take the principles of managing your risk and letting the profits take care of themselves to heart, and you’ve been able to dig yourselves out of holes and that’s been incredibly valuable to me.

5:39
And so much of the show’s growth has come during the pandemic, and that’s where so much of us have learned about the stock market during that time. For instance, have you ever traded during an economic shutdown? Literally flipping the off switch on the entire global economy.

5:55
Has anybody ever traded through something like that? I haven’t. And let me tell you, it put fear in me because I think to myself, I don’t want to try to buy stocks at the bottom. This is insanity because is this market gonna be able to come back anytime soon when there’s zero economic output?

6:11
But what did the market do? And, and some of you guys did buy at the bottom and that was pretty amazing. It was pretty ballsy too. But in doing so, you reaped a lot of profits by doing that. And that’s where the reputation of Jay Powell also referred to as Jay Daddy, J Powell, however you refer to him as, grew in stature and legend and everything in between.

6:34
This is a guy who basically printed more money. Than the economy could ever know what to do with in order to keep the market from having a recession. Let me say that again, printed nonstop money went above and beyond the call or the mandate of the Federal Reserve to save the US stock market, not so much the economy because even as I’m doing this right now.

6:58
The supply chain is completely whack. But the stock market, well, we’re trading at all time highs. And in doing so, we have inflation, we have shortages, we have a record number of job openings, but hardly anybody that wants them, but yes, we have a stock market that’s at all-time highs.

7:16
And then there’s a record number of people jumping into the stock market for the first time. Becoming traders using their stimmy checks of thousands of dollars that have been received from the federal government and putting them into the stock market as their own personal casino. I don’t say that to reprimand or to judge or condemn, but more as a basis of fact that so many of you guys got the start in the stock market during one of the biggest global crises that has ever existed.

7:46
And here we are 20 months after the fact, doing OK. We’re surviving. Yes, there’s been a number of people blow up accounts, but if you manage the risk, if you learn the principles of capital preservation, then you’re still in the game. But it’s not earnings, it’s not economic outlooks.

8:02
It’s not the revenue that Apple’s bringing in or any other company is bringing in. It’s the Fed that is the main driver of the stock market. In the Fed, the market trusts, shorting the stock market has become almost all but dead. And even when the market does start to correct, you can almost guarantee yourself that if it falls too far, the Fed will be there to start a new program.

8:25
And to make sure that it gets highlighted on 60 minutes on Sunday night and that their decisions will come right before the Sunday evening open at 6 p.m. Eastern just in time to goose those stocks as high as possible for the week to come.

8:44
Yes, the Fed is not a fan of any kind of bear market and whether or not it causes inflation, whether it creates interest rates that are next to nothing. The Fed doesn’t care because at the end, their ultimate mandate is the stock market. In essence, the market is completely disattached from reality and that was one of the things that, yes, I know that the market is different than what the economy is, but this past 20 plus months highlighted it more than ever before.

9:16
No one ever realized just how much of a disattachment there was between the stock market. And the economic reality of the United States and of every country far and wide. By the dip became such a huge and important phrase for so many traders and in the process of just by the dip.

9:38
The dip got bought quicker and quicker every time. What used to be a 8 to 12 month selloff became a 2 to 3 month sell-off, and what was a 2 to 3 month sell off eventually became a 2 to 3 week sell off and what was a 2 to 3 week sell off became a 2 to 3 day sell off.

9:54
Over time, the stock market dips have gotten much, much quicker. And the only thing that could probably bring down the stock market at this point is if the Fed starts to raise rates, stops buying assets, or any new program that the Fed comes out with cannot stop an impending sell-off, that the sell-off is bigger than anything that the Fed could possibly come up with to combat it.

10:18
And the reality is, is I’m not so sure that the Fed won’t do everything possible beyond what’s sensible and what’s rational. In order to keep the stock market from having any major sell off, something else that’s become very important to me and and more so come to light for me is is that how little your daily, weekly, monthly and yearly performance is.

10:41
So much so our trading decisions are based off of how much money am I up on a trade, how much money have I lost on a trade, and you start to personalize those dollars and you make your decisions when the market doesn’t care about what those dollars mean to you.

10:57
If you’re up 10, 15% on the year, who cares? The market doesn’t care. Market’s just gonna continue to trade each and every day. So it’s more important to focus on the market each and every day than what you might have already done year to date or month to date or week to date. Focus on the trades that you have at hand, ignore the past, ignore the past trades, because the only trades that are important right now are the ones that you’re currently in.

11:19
I have also had to become much more patient with my trades. Before, I used to give trades 1 to 2 days to figure themselves out. Sometimes it takes now 2 to 3 weeks to figure out whether or not a trade’s going to be successful. I even have a trade right now in the portfolio. It’s up about 6 or 7%, but it’s been in my portfolio now for almost 2 months.

11:40
And it took a solid month just for it to get the wheels cranking. I still like to lose fast and win slow, but sometimes you have to give a stock enough room to get those wheels turning in the direction that you desire. I’ve embraced more and more than ever before the fact that there’s freedom between your entry price and your stop loss.

12:00
So many times before, if a stock wasn’t quite working out the way I expected to right out of the gate, I would go ahead and dump it. But I’ve learned more and more with time. That I need to embrace that freedom that there is between your entry price and stop boss. Yes, you’re going to get stopped out at times. I get stopped out plenty of times.

12:17
But there’s freedom inside of that entry price and stop loss for you to be patient with the trade while it develops and while it finally tries to break out or bounce off of a major support level. Embrace that freedom. Don’t just look at it from I’m down 2% or 3%.

12:33
Look at it as there’s still opportunity for my trade to perform within the risk parameters that I set out up front for the trade that I am in. Patience goes such a long way, and that is definitely something that I have grown in that area over these past 100 episodes.

12:51
And it’s even more interesting too. I don’t feel a lot of emotion with my winning trades and my losing trades, and I know that’s a cliche in the stock market. You shouldn’t feel any emotions at all, but I really don’t. Now, on a day to day basis, I could be like, oh man, I’m in Roku and it’s not going anywhere. Why is it not moving it? The chart suggests that it should be following through, but it’s not.

13:08
Yeah, I, I still get those kinds of frustrations too when I’m looking at the charts like this doesn’t even make that much sense. But overall, whether it’s a winning trade or a losing trade, whether I make 20% or I lose 4%. I don’t personalize it that much. I don’t really find a lot of excitement in it as I would when I was a much newer to trading, say, 1520 years ago, even more so just even over the past 100 episodes.

13:29
I’m more of a Barry Sanders who just knows that he’s done this before, that he’s had big moments and moves on to the next big moment rather than being like a Deion Sanders who perpetually celebrates each and everything that he does or like a lot of the prima donnas that are in the NFL. That if whether it’s a catch or a first down, they’ve got to spike the ball, spin the ball and act like this is the greatest moment of their careers.

13:51
No, I just move on to the next trade. That’s one of the things I think has helped me out a lot too is that I don’t get hung up on past trades. And that’s very difficult for traders to embrace, but the more You become disattached from the dollars that are associated with your trades. The more that you become disattached from the fact that it’s a winning trade or a losing trade, and men in particular have a hard, hard time with this because they hate losing.

14:16
It’s not even about the money, it’s about the fact that they don’t want to accept a loss on a trade. I’ve seen people say, hey, I could get gone and out with just a 0.5% loss, but I didn’t want to lose on the trade, so I ended up taking a 20% loss on the trade and I’m still stuck in it and I’m doubling down.

14:32
I mean, those are the kind of bad decisions that come from not willing to accept a loss. So in wrapping up my 200th episode, a quick summary. First, Blanton straight from the barrel, if you can find it, it is amazing. Not just amazing, it’s romantic.

14:47
Also, the pandemic changed trading forever. It brought in so many new people, it made retail traders. A viable entity in the stock market, not just the big banks anymore. You saw with with the Wall Street bets crowd and what they did with GameStock, AMC and how they were able to short squeeze some of the major funds, just how legit the retail investor was, being able to pull their money together and be unable to move stocks in ways that no one had ever seen before.

15:17
The Fed is number one. That is all the market cares about. Shorting is pretty much dead. The head and shoulders patterns typically a bearish pattern, most of the time will lead to some of the most massive bounces you’ve ever seen. And that’s because the market will continue to buy the dip as long as the Federal Reserve is a direct player in the outcome of the financial markets.

15:38
Remember, the past really doesn’t matter in your future trading. It holds very little importance. To who you are as a trader going forward, because the only thing that matters is the next trade. So why get hung up on what your year to date returns are? Why get hung up on what your monthly returns, your weekly or even your daily returns are?

15:56
Learn to focus on the trades and following the charts and making sure that you’re not letting your emotions guide. Your decisions also the patience that’s required with the trade that doesn’t mean that you ignore your stop loss parameters, but it does mean that there is freedom within the parameters of your trades from where you got in at and where your stop loss is at, and that you can give it the time necessary in order for that trade and its potential to be realized.

16:24
If you’ve enjoyed this episode, make sure, especially if you’ve enjoyed the past 200 episodes, and if you haven’t done so already, make sure to leave a positive review on whatever platform you’re listening to, whether that be Spotify or Apple. Make sure to leave a 5 star review. Make sure to check out swingtradingthestockmarket.com, and most importantly, keep sending me your questions.

16:43
I want to hear from you guys. I wanna know what’s on your mind and what troubles you. Send them to me, ryan@shareplanner.com. I do read them all. Thank you guys, and God bless. Thanks for listening to my podcast, Swing Trading the stock market. I’d like to encourage you to join me in the SharePlanner trading block where I navigate the stock market each day with traders from around the world.

17:04
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17:26
If you have any questions, please feel free to email me at ryan@shareplanner.com. All the best to you and I look forward to trading with you soon.