A Contrarian Stock Market | Podcast Episode #68

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Learn to trade, stocks successfully, learn to profit consistently. I’m Ryan Mallory and on my weekly podcast, I’m going to teach you the in and out of a complex ever-changing stock market. You will learn to trade better trait smarter and profit bigger.

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Now, let’s go trade. Hey everybody, this Is Ryan Mallory with swing trading the stock market. I appreciate you tuning in and hearing what I have to say week after week. And this has been a really crazy week and I’ll, I’ll get right to it. I’ve been doing a lot of work with the swing trading Splash Zone.

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I’m trying to make it better. More encompassing of different trading strategies and a bigger focus on Market education. So, I’ll be sending an email out here in the not too distant future explaining, some of those changes and what you can expect from the The Splash Zone going forward.

1:01
So if you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to check it out. They’ll be some changes in the price. But of course, if you’re a member of the Splash Zone, currently nothing will ever change for you. So, I look forward to Rolling those out at that. People are already starting to see some of the changes now, but I’m going to do a little bit more of a tutorial and an email explain what those changes are, how that’s going to help you become a better Trader.

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And more of a self-made Trader because ultimately, you don’t want to be dependent solely on me for your trading success, you don’t want to be completely dependent on my ideas and my, my trajectory on what I believe the market.

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It’s going to be doing in the days and weeks ahead. You want to be able to come to the conclusion yourself. You want to be able to develop your intuition, your abilities as a Trader, your chart reading and so forth so that you’re doing it on your own.

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And there’s been a lot of people that come and gone through the Splash Zone over the 10 plus years that I’ve been doing it that have been able to become their own self-made Trader. So excited about rolling out these changes. Stay tuned for it. Be checking your email box. You haven’t just go to share planner and sign up for one of my free things.

2:18
Go to the free resources at the top of the page, click it. You’ll get free resources. You also get to meet email request and you can put your email in there and you’ll be good to go. Now, how about our podcast? What am I going to be talking today? Well, I’m going to be talking about a contrarian Market. What do you do in the market?

2:34
Just seems to do the exact opposite of what you think it’s going to do. We have that right now and I’ve done a lot of podcasts on low volume markets. Yeah, we have that to right now, but I want to talk about this one particular tendency of the market, and that is to be contrarian.

2:51
And when the markets acting like this, it’s easy to get whipsawed. You see those Market sell-off? You get short next day, the market rallies, and the gaps up and rallies. So then you get rid of the short, and then you get back long and you’re feeling good. Okay, finally, I’m on the right side of the market, but then the next day it sells off again, so you get short.

3:09
Again and then all of a sudden, the market rallies and its really frustrating. I mean, it’s listen, it’s happened to me. It’s happened to me a lot and I don’t like it. I feel like I’m getting whipped around a little bit right now, but the one Saving Grace that I have going for me is that I’m not over trading my account.

3:28
I’m not adding just tons of traits. So check this out on Friday of last week, I bought Twitter didn’t really do too much. Then I saw rally on Monday, I was, I finished a little bit higher on Friday around a little bit more on Monday, but the candle on the overall Market didn’t look right to me, it looked like it was setting up for a sell-off.

3:49
I knew that if we had a big sell-off, Twitter is probably going to be the victim of it, as well as a bunch of other stocks to. So I went ahead and sold Twitter for a one-and-a-half percent profit hated doing that because I like to give my stock a lot of room to run and a chance.

4:05
Not so much in the stop-lossed, but as much opportunity, Unity before a stop loss is hit to make its big run, you know, if it’s going to go up a few percent or even 10 percent, you know, I want it to have the opportunity to do that because it stinks when you get stopped out and then you see the market take that stock up, like 15-20 percent after you get out.

4:24
So I do like to give it some some time and space to do that. But not this time, I saw the candle on the market. I got out of it was a bearish candle so I get out of it out of Twitter and I go into the next day, 100% cash. I didn’t want to take On the overnight risk because there is very easy for the market to Gap up.

4:41
And so I didn’t want to take that on and then of course, the the market gap down. So you know, had I got in short on the market like using a inverse ETF like SPX you or ask you, I would have done pretty good so I get the market to open the next day.

5:01
It’s open way down, it trades, way, way lower to and then all of a sudden starts rally and back and back and back. back, and then I get The opportunity to use that rally intraday rally to get short on the NASDAQ. So I use sqq which is a 3 2 1 inverse ETF of the NASDAQ.

5:20
So if the NASDAQ goes up, 1 percent, I’m going to be down 3% if it goes down 1%, I’m going to be up three percent. So the NASDAQ kept on falling, it closed at the lows of the day, it looked like going into today before we knew what the Futures price action was going to be like that having closed.

5:39
Did that day at the Lowe’s? The Mark was probably going to sell off today and keep pushing lower, but no we recycled another Chinese headlines saying that China was open to a partial deal, which I swear we’ve had that freaking headline.

5:55
Hit the market every day for like the past week. I’m thinking, I mean, it’s all the time we see that stupid headline. China wants a partial deal. We get that You know, it’s been regurgitated like 15 times. And every time you pump the market on it, So it happens again, so I wake up, you know, you know, 5:30 this morning, I’m looking at the S&P 500 plus 20 points the NASDAQ step over 70.

6:23
So the profits that I made, which about two and a half percent and S QQ Q the day prior, it’s going to be pretty much wiped out today. And it did, I mean, I pretty much traded a little bit lower overall, in that position about three percent lower on the day, that sucks.

6:41
Now, I didn’t get out of it and maybe we strike a trade deal tonight and we got even higher tomorrow on the NASDAQ. And the S&P 500, I lose a little bit more and get stopped out of it. That’s very possible. But I also know to when you have these contrary and markets Selling because the markets going up, one day, and then buying or or buying let me start over selling because the stock market is going down, one day and buying because it’s going up the next day that’s going to cause you to get whipsawed around.

7:17
And if you look at the price action, it’s all over the place. But the broader Trend going back to the October highs, which, you know, it’s not a lot of days but if you look at it from a 30-minute chart, The NASDAQ and the S&P is actually in a pretty impressive downtrend on the 30 minute chart.

7:34
So today is kind of like a higher high for the Market Per Se. So I didn’t get out of my position. I hold it overnight. I’m pretty much flat on the trade right now. We’ll see where it takes me going into tomorrow but the takeaway here is you have to avoid trying to fight the urge to trade every little move.

7:52
And these moves are really small, they’re not really. But yesterday was a big rally but I’m saying just as a whole So, you’re seeing some really small moves on an intraday basis. So, that meaning, like once the Art Market opens, it doesn’t really move that much. It will move a lot overnight, and that’s what it did today.

8:07
I mean, it really didn’t move much from where it opened up the day at if you take a look at the market to going all the way back to January 2018, We’re pretty much at the same exact spot. We were 22 months ago, we haven’t really moved that much.

8:26
We had a huge rally think of like seven percent or so if I remember correctly back in January of 2018 and everybody was like man this markets off to an incredible start. It’s going to be a great year and then February hit, it was a nasty nasty sell-off. We haven’t really moved since those January highs from 2018.

8:43
Yeah, we’ve established a new all-time highs along the way, and, since then everything, but the market had keeps pulling back to where we were at back in January, of 2018. There really hasn’t been a lot of change. So that means a lot of sideways price action. There’s a lot of moves above and below where we’re currently at, but ultimately we haven’t really moved and so we get close to the all-time highs or 1 or 2% near it.

9:09
We start having these like low-volume melt ups and then we have a so offs on increased volume. We saw it and may we saw it in August, you have these big 34 percent moves in the stock market and it’s on huge volume.

9:24
And then we just kind of like melt our way back up after those sell-offs. I’m very low volume, but it’s kind of mind-boggling because there’s not a lot of interest in the buying, but at least definitely not to the degree that there was selling just a few days prior to, those, those melt ups.

9:42
But there, but there is an evolved, just basically kind of lift it. And it’s not so much that there’s a ton of buyers but there’s an absent. There’s there’s basically a absence of sellers in the market and that’s what we have kind of right now. We had a huge Yesterday.

10:00
But then today we just kind of like me and her are way higher, but it’s not on any big volume. It’s just, it’s kind of like because the markets not selling off its rallying and that’s kind of like one of the bigger frustrations right now with this market. And for a lot of Traders is that the market only puts together sizable rallies?

10:23
Once it sells off, you don’t ever see, like, a 70 point rally on the NASDAQ and a 40 or 50 point rally on the S&P 500. After it’s already made all-time highs. No, it takes only way you get a significant rally is for the market to sell off two or three percent first, maybe even four or five percent and then all of a sudden you start to see see you like a significant move in the market but until then you don’t see anything.

10:40
So some quick takeaways from this podcast here, one going over, trade your account. Don’t try to take advantage of every little move higher and lower because it will rack up trading commission’s which Should be a little bit more in your favor now because trade commission’s are going away so you can’t be getting destroyed by the trading commission’s anymore.

11:01
However you do get penalized for not showing enough patients in the market when we’re whipsawing all over the place here, you get up when you’re down, you get down. When you should be up the markets cut acting contrary to what you actually think it’s going to do. Trust me.

11:19
I was surprised as anybody that we gapped higher today. You look at how the X-ray I shouldn’t even say that because I’ve seen this unfolded, So many times over the past year and a half where you think, okay, technically this Market is selling off, there is no way.

11:37
This thing is going up tomorrow or even like by like a smidge and then it goes up one and a half percent. I mean, you just see all the time and it’s getting more like blatant. Every time we see a sell-off it’s just an immediate by back, but if you do that then the next day it goes down.

11:53
So this contrarian Behavior out of the market. You can get whipsawed all around by trying to be long in the days. It Long and just be short when the, when the markets Droppin so you have to kind of endure some days when the markets not working in your favor and a lot of times it’ll work out in the end there.

12:15
If you can just kind of deal with the market fluctuations on a day-to-day basis, That’s going to do it for today. I appreciate you joining in. Like I said, in the beginning of this podcast, lots of changes happening to SharePlanner and there’s gonna be a lot of changes between now and the end of the year, I’ve got a lot of stuff on rolling out.

12:30
A lot of exciting stuff. The stuff to make you a better Trader and the changes to the Splash Zone is the first stage of that. So stay tuned be ready for all. Sorts of exciting, new rollouts to happen. And you guys hang in there with this Market, we got China, we get the FED.

12:54
We got Donald Been his tweets, we got all sorts of stuff that it’s constantly ripping, the market higher sell in the market lower and dear folks be disciplined. Use your stop losses and this too shall pass. Thank you. God bless.

13:20
Thanks for listening to this week’s podcast of Swing trading with Ryan Mallory. I’d like to encourage you to join me in the share printer Splash Zone, where I navigate the financial markets every day with Traders from around the world with Your membership, you’ll get a 7 day trial access to my trading room and text and email alerts.

13:39
So go ahead and sign up by going to shareplanner.com, backslash Splash Zone, that’s www.shareplanner.com/trading-block, backslash Splash Zone. And follow me at SharePlanner on Twitter and on SharePlanner’s, Facebook page, where I provide unique market and trading ideas every day.

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If you have any questions, please feel free to email me. ryan@shareplanner.com or call the office at three, two, one, five, two two 6733 all the best to you and God bless.