Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):
- European markets are trading -0.5% lower.
- Asian markets traded traded in a wide range between -1.6% and as high as +0.9%.
- US futures are down moderately ahead of the opening bell.
Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am)
Technical Outlook (SPX):
- First 2-day pullback that we have see in well over a month.
- Fortunately for the bulls, the dip got bought up early on, and made the losses much easier to handle.
- Trading below the 10-day moving average for the first time since 4/22.
- Another down day today in the DJIA and you will have your first 3-day push lower in 2013, and only the second one in the SPX.
- Volume, particularly in the SPY, continues to flood in at very impressive levels.
- Surprisingly the short-term trend-line as shown below held up albeit barely. The market will need to rally if that trend-line wants to hold another day.
- Gap downs are the bears worst enemy. More times than not, they will give up the morning gains. Look for a bottom in the first hour followed by some consolidation and an ultimate push higher. Just like we saw yesterday.
- A push below 1597 would be necessary to get the month of May in the red.
- The long-term trend-line off of the February lows sits at 1610 today, and likely safe from the reaches of the market.
- 30-minute chart shows a very inviting bear flag pattern.
- Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620.
- We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009.
- Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
- We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame.
My Opinions & Trades:
- Sold GRA at $79.89 for a 1.1% gain.
- Sold DG at $53.57 for a 1.6% gain.
- Sold CMG at $367.17 at 1.9% loss.
- Sold HOS at $51.28 for a 2.5% loss.
- Sold PCYC at 80.97 for a 1.9% loss.
- Sold FTR at 4.21 for a 3.2% loss.
- Will look to add new positions if the market allows today .
- Added CF at $187.77 yesterday.
- Added HLIT at 6.08 yesterday.
- Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone
Chart for SPX:

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