Pre-market update (updated 9am eastern):

  • European markets are trading -0.5% lower.
  • Asian markets traded traded in a wide range between -1.6% and as high as +0.9%.
  • US futures are down moderately ahead of the opening bell. 

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): Durable Goods Orders (8:30am)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • First 2-day pullback that we have see in well over a month. 
  • Fortunately for the bulls, the dip got bought up early on, and made the losses much easier to handle. 
  • Trading below the 10-day moving average for the first time since 4/22. 
  • Another down day today in the DJIA and you will have your first 3-day push lower in 2013, and only the second one in the SPX. 
  • Volume, particularly in the SPY, continues to flood in at very impressive levels. 
  • Surprisingly the short-term trend-line as shown below held up albeit barely. The market will need to rally if that trend-line wants to hold another day. 
  • Gap downs are the bears worst enemy. More times than not, they will give up the morning gains. Look for a bottom in the first hour followed by some consolidation and an ultimate push higher. Just like we saw yesterday. 
  • A push below 1597 would be necessary to get the month of May in the red. 
  • The long-term trend-line off of the February lows sits at 1610 today, and likely safe from the reaches of the market. 
  • 30-minute chart shows a very inviting bear flag pattern. 
  • Drawing a Fibonacci retracement on the most recent market rally, from the April lows, has a 50% retracement at 1604. A 38.2% retracement would be a 1620. 
  • We are up seven straight months, the last time we saw such a rally was when the market bottomed in 2009. 
  • Markets don’t care about the economy. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 
  • We haven’t seen a market pullback in excess of 4% since October/November time-frame. 

My Opinions & Trades:

  • Sold GRA at $79.89 for a 1.1% gain. 
  • Sold DG at $53.57 for a 1.6% gain. 
  • Sold CMG at $367.17 at 1.9% loss. 
  • Sold HOS at $51.28 for a 2.5% loss. 
  • Sold PCYC at 80.97 for a 1.9% loss. 
  • Sold FTR at 4.21 for a 3.2% loss. 
  • Will look to add new positions if the market allows today . 
  • Added CF at $187.77 yesterday. 
  • Added HLIT at 6.08 yesterday. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 5-24-13

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