Taking a late-night look at S&P 500 futures.  This market has been going through violent swings, bouncing hard against a range that appears like a shakeout before a big move.

Since starting to look at futures, I’ve been looking harder at candle setups and moving averages.  And I notice two things in the latest /ES action: 1) we’re getting closer to a somewhat weak trendline support. 2) This price is determined to stay above the 8-day MA right now.  I’d consider that double support to be respected… until it isn’t.

I’ll be expecting a green candle day to follow the red of today.  Interesting how it’s been red-green, red-green since this oh-so-minor “correction.”

es-e-mini contract

If I trade intraday tomorrow, I’ll be bullish above the 8MA to 1560, and then we’ll see where it goes from there.  In cash for now.

 

TUESDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Futures have already filled the losses overnight as Europe came back from holiday yesterday.  1565 is back as the active resistance level as 1560 is now a median support line.  I’m concerned about the higher-volume down-days, and the gradually weakening RSI; and there’s that bearish rising-wedge on the daily’s that just might be my imagination.  But the MA’s still point up and price is pulling it higher.  The envelope is getting tighter, but what’s to stop this market from breaking UP on bearish setups as it already has over and over again?

Today’s range is from 1560-1567, with a lower but stronger support line around 1556.

20130402ES am

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