Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY (113.30), DELL (13.26), FL (13.81)
BIAS: 34% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Treasury Budget (2pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are up strong heading into the open.
- Chinese economic reports seem to be bolstering the market this morning.
- Downward trend-line off of the April highs has been broken. But no higher-highs have been put in place yet.
- Market is extremely overbought in every sense of the word. Seven out of the past eight days has seen the S&P increase in value.
- 200-Day moving average acts as the next road-block for the bulls to conquer at 1115.
- Volume last week was very weak, which puts in to question the validity of the gains seen.
- Bears need to get the ball rolling very soon – need to push the market below 1091 as its first order of business.
- Wouldn’t be overly surprised to see this rally faded today – I put the odds at 50%.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Will stay put in my portfolio today and won’t add any additional short positions to it.
- Taking on a new long position at this point in the rally has a very low reward/risk ratio. Fading the rally with a few short positions has a much better setup to it.
- Won’t hesitate to hedge this portfolio in the face of continued strength after the market open.
- Added Foot Locker (FL) to the portfolio at 12.96 on Friday.