Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY (113.30), DELL (13.26)
BIAS: 25% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): International Trade (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (11am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are slightly positive
- Jobless Claims will be the main focus heading into the open, and should have a significant impact to market direction to day. Consensus is 470k.
- 1104 of the Downward trend-line will be today’s key resistance level for the bulls to breakthrough. Last three days have been unsuccessful.
- If the bears could hold the 1104 trend-line and then proceed to sell off even further and eventually break the 1040 level, it would spell disaster for the bulls – the downward trend-line would be working perfectly and according to plan.
- Breaking through the 50-day moving average for the bears and 200 for the bulls are key near-term obstacles for both.
- Except for July, and since April, the second half of each month has been much more conducive to seeing significant selling, than the first half.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Added two new additional short positions to the portfolio yesterday: SPY and DELL.
- Should the market sell-off today and not break the downward trend-line, I’ll be inclined to add maybe one additional position to the portfolio.
- Not looking to rush this market into doing anything right now. I’ll wait for it to show me its intentions first. I am only trading off of the fact, that it is struggling with the downward trend-line off of the April highs.