Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses):
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): SPY (113.30), DELL (13.26), URBN (36.60)
BIAS: 36% Short
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Producer Price Index (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Current Account (8:30am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Tim Geithner (10am), Philadelphia Fed Survey (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am),
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are slightly down.
- High probability that we find out whether this market can break through the 1130 level on the S&P today.
- A good jobs report, would likely push us through the mark.
- A bad jobs report could be the perfect catalyst for a reversal up against 1130 resistance and a well-overbought market.
- Bear target would be for a close below 1113, which would push us below the week’s lows as well as the 200-day moving average.
- Volume still has not been over impressive to-date. Not a lot of enthusiasm in this rally.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Depending on the day’s market action, I will look to add an additional 1-2 new short positions to the portfolio today.
- A push above 1130 and I’ll close out all of my short positions.
- Stay away from fading any large gap up/down this morning – whatever direction it may be, I don’t think it will be fadeable.
- Plenty of solid short setups out there – will wait to see some definitive bearish market action before adding new positions today.