Trading Plan for March 15, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC, MPEL (7.11), AAPL (338.23), CHK (30.76), CIM (45.25)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 30% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Housing Market Index (10am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm)

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Saying futures are down may quite be the understatement of the year – S&P looking at a possible gap-down of almost 3%. 
• Japan’s Nikkei was rocked overnight to the tune of 10.6% to the downside, while Hang Seng was down 2.9% and Shanghai was down 1.4%. Europe Saw losses range from 2.6% down to as much as 4.9%. 
• The market has now pulled back so much, that we are actually looking at an open of where we started the year. Considering the non-stop rally we were on through most of February, that is quite impressive to wipe those gains away that fast. 
• FOMC Statement to be released today, and investors will be looking for whether the Fed with conduct or even consider a QE3. A surprise rate cut, considering the market conditions we are dealing with right now, is not a possibility. 
• Bears should be focused on locking in profits on a day like today – adding additional short positions at the current market levels isn’t going to provide you with an ideal risk/reward summary. 
• A lot of panic selling could be seen in the market last night. Interested if that will carry over into the market open. 
• We’re looking at opening up at the 100-day moving average, which may provide some support for the market. 
• Unless we see a major reversal (which would be an incredible feat if that actually happened), today’s action provides confirmation that the upward trend from 9/1 onward is over and a new downtrend has begun. 
• For the bears – keep the majority of the losses we’ll open with, avoid any kind of rally off of the FOMC statement from unfolding.
• For the bulls – Not sure really – beyond, keep the losses contained as much as possible. 
• My conclusion: Follow the stop-losses you set prior today, don’t try to hold out hope on long positions. Panic buying/selling only increases your problems. Follow your game-plan. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Closed out MPEL yesterday at $7.25 TICC at $10.60. 
• Added CIM towards the close yesterday at $97.50 – wouldn’t mind having that one back. 
• Plan on being knocked out of my remaining long positions today. 
• May try to play intraday bounces in the market. 
• Will not add any new positions to the portfolio today. 
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.