Trading Plan for March 14, 2011

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC, MPEL (7.11), AAPL (338.23), CHK (30.76)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None

BIAS: 31% Long

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Futures are down strong ahead of the open. 
• Japan’s market dropped 7.8%! while the rest of Asia was slightly up. Europe was down across the board as much as 1.34%.
• S&P rebounded nicely on Friday, but opened slightly below the 2/24 lows before recovering. 
• Price managed to close back above the 50-day moving average, but the volume wasn’t overly impressive and was below average.
• At this point, I have to assume that the rallies that we see going forward be considered dead-cat bounces. 
• S&P is at the cusp of ending the rally from 9/1 and beginning a new downtrend, if it manages to close below the lows from 2/24.
• 1275 on the S&P will be the next logical support level for the S&P to test if we break the 2/24 lows. 
• For the bears – Close below 1294 and end the 6 month rally of late. 
• For the bulls – Recover from the early morning losses that we are looking at, and if possible push higher than the Friday highs. 
• My conclusion: With recent selling of late, the market is starting to rapidly shift into the hands of the bears, in which all rallies should be viewed through a lense of skepticism. 

Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:

• Stopped out of IRC for a 2% loss and LIZ for a 3% loss while booking 2% in gains on FFIV. 
• Added CHK yesterda to the portfolio on Friday at 32.76. 
• Will stand aside from adding any new long positions to the portfolio today, unless sentiment suddenly changes. 
• Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.