Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 100% CASH
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Fed Balance Sheet (4:30pm), Money Supply (4:30pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures moderately higher ahead of jobs report.
- Jobs report whether good or bad, has been rallied on initially over the last two weeks. So a high jobless claims # doesn’t guarantee a sell-off.
- GDP report tomorrow will be what everyone prepares/positions themselves for today.
- Despite the futures being higher, there is a possibility that traders take profits from the most recent rally ahead of the GDP report.
- Gap as it stands now, seems very fill-able. But jobs # could throw a wrench in that play – stay tuned.
- Today will likely be a low volume day.
- Not a good sign for bulls showing for three days straight they can’t close above the 200-day moving average, despite very aggressive attempts to do so.
- Volume was surprisingly low yesterday for a down-day yesterday.
- Markets still heavily overbought.
- The lack of bad news, especially out of Europe has been the bulls’ best friend and really the catalyst for this rally we’ve seen.
Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Watch the open and jobs # to determine whether I can fade the open.
- I don’t expect to initiate any new swing trades today.
- Will spend my day likely scalping off of TNA and TZA and other 3x ultras.
- If trending day, I’ll fade any counter-trend action.
- If sideways, I’ll fade extremes in price movement.
