Trading Plan for July 12, 2010

Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): QQQQ (Hedge)

Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): ESV (42.84), MR (33.39), SPY (109.07), NUS (27.59)

BIAS: Neutral

Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): None

My Observations and What to Expect:

• Earnings for Alcoa is  released today. Alcoa sets the stage for the earnings season.
• The rally seen last week makes me think that we will see the market sell the earnings.
• Market is neither overbought nor oversold on any significant indicator at this point.
• Volume continues to drop off in a major way – further evidence of a dead-cat bounce.
• No major news scheduled, could make for a quiet open.
• Continue to watch BP efforts to plug the hole in the Gulf, and the affects it has on the markets, and energy in particular as a result.
• S&P rally beyond 1090ish seems unlikely. Rally is probably coming to an end here, real soon, if this is indeed a bull-trap. All indications says it is.

Actions I Will Be Taking:

• WIll look to commit an additional 20% of my capital to the short side on any market weakness.
• WIll stay in QQQQ until the market makes it apparent it is looking to reverse course.
• WIll not hesitate to get back in/stay in QQQQ if the market continues to stay strong today.
• Won’t play any earnings announcements this season. I will instead close any position I might have, at least the day before.
• Should the market sell-off from the get go, I will sell my QQQQ position at the first intraday-bounce
• When Market Opens up I will wait for a technical break before selling QQQQ.
• All other short positions I plan  on leaving alone, and letting my stops pay out.