Technical Outlook:

  • SPX traded flat yesterday on extremely weak volume – the weakest volume day of the year. 
  • SPY volume was only 10% higher than what was seen on Christmas eve. 
  • For the bulls the recent selling isn’t overly concerning as it extremely shallow and light volume. 
  • The 5-day moving average yesterday was tested on SPX but was unable to break through. 
  • Overbought conditions has actually managed to work themselves off some in the short-term. 
  • The market so far, is looking like it is working off overbought conditions through time rather than price. 
  • VIX popped 3.3% yesterday, but inside of Thursday’s action. 
  • T2108 finished yesterday sideways and not giving up any ground. 
  • Declining trend-line off of the November highs looks to be retested again this week. 
  • It is very possible right now, that we continue to rally into May before the market sees any strong renewed selling interest, much like the case of 2008 where a similar event took place before the rest of the year was mired in heavy selling. 
  • Bears should be targeting a break of last week’s lows on the 30 minute chart to jump start the sell-off. 
  • Tons and tons of year long resistance between 2040 and all-time highs.
  • The theme in the market of late is not how much it is going up each day but how much it manages to recover off of the lows of the day. 

My Trades:

  • Did not sell any swing trades yesterday. 
  • Added two new swing-trades to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • Currently 30% Long / 70% Cash
  • Remain long TLT at $129.52
  • Will look to add an additional long position if today’s weakness gets bought up. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 3-29-16