Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): TICC, MPEL (7.11), AAPL (338.23), CHK (30.76), CIM (45.25)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 30% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (7:45am), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am), Import and Export Prices (8:30am), Redbook (8:55am), Treasury International Capital (9am), Housing Market Index (10am), FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:15pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Saying futures are down may quite be the understatement of the year – S&P looking at a possible gap-down of almost 3%.
- Japan’s Nikkei was rocked overnight to the tune of 10.6% to the downside, while Hang Seng was down 2.9% and Shanghai was down 1.4%. Europe Saw losses range from 2.6% down to as much as 4.9%.
- The market has now pulled back so much, that we are actually looking at an open of where we started the year. Considering the non-stop rally we were on through most of February, that is quite impressive to wipe those gains away that fast.
- FOMC Statement to be released today, and investors will be looking for whether the Fed with conduct or even consider a QE3. A surprise rate cut, considering the market conditions we are dealing with right now, is not a possibility.
- Bears should be focused on locking in profits on a day like today – adding additional short positions at the current market levels isn’t going to provide you with an ideal risk/reward summary.
- A lot of panic selling could be seen in the market last night. Interested if that will carry over into the market open.
- We’re looking at opening up at the 100-day moving average, which may provide some support for the market.
- Unless we see a major reversal (which would be an incredible feat if that actually happened), today’s action provides confirmation that the upward trend from 9/1 onward is over and a new downtrend has begun.
- For the bears – keep the majority of the losses we’ll open with, avoid any kind of rally off of the FOMC statement from unfolding.
- For the bulls – Not sure really – beyond, keep the losses contained as much as possible.
- My conclusion: Follow the stop-losses you set prior today, don’t try to hold out hope on long positions. Panic buying/selling only increases your problems. Follow your game-plan.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:
- Closed out MPEL yesterday at $7.25 TICC at $10.60.
- Added CIM towards the close yesterday at $97.50 – wouldn’t mind having that one back.
- Plan on being knocked out of my remaining long positions today.
- May try to play intraday bounces in the market.
- Will not add any new positions to the portfolio today.
- Follow me in the SharePlanner Chat-Room today for all my live trades and ideas.