Swing-Trading Strategy Report #342

: Ryan Mallory; 10 December 2018

My Swing Trading Approach

I closed out my long position in NFLX for a -0.9% loss on Friday, early in the trading session, and then took a long position in SPXU (short ETF of 3:1 on SPX) for a +3.8% profit. Today, I am entering the day 100% cash, and will watch to see if the early morning strength can hold in the early going before trying to play it long, otherwise, I'll likely fade the strength.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - A 9.6% rally on Friday puts it in a position to test the highs from October.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): A 20% decline took it down to 25%. Currently the indicator is nowhere near oversold or at extremes - not good for the bulls going forward.
Moving averages (SPX): Trading below all major moving averages.
RELATED: Patterns to Profits: Training Course

Sectors to Watch Today

Utilities continue to be the safest place to put your money at. A new closing all-time high on Friday. Energy still trying to hold support going back to February. Relative strength on Friday. Financials and Industrials look very troublesome here.

My Market Sentiment

Rising trend-line off of the February lows looks to be tested yet again today. Careful about taking to strong of a bias in any direction. The market is seeing huge swings here. If Thursday's lows breaks, it is almost certain we see a retest of October lows.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance

100% Cash.

Recent Stock Trades - See My Past Performance Here.

Swing-Trading Strategy Report #341

: Ryan Mallory; 07 December 2018

My Swing Trading Approach

I added one long position yesterday that's off to a good start, once the market showed a willingness to bounce and sustain the bounce off of the lows of the day. I will consider adding another long position today should the momentum sustain itself following the jobs report.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - A huge move above 23.81 to create a higher-high, the only problem, was that the momentum could not be sustained and nearly all of the gains were lost by the close at 21.19.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): Saw nearly half of its value wiped out yesterday, but bounced off of those lows at 18, to rally back to 31.49 with a 0.5% rally into the green. A remarkable turnaround.
Moving averages (SPX): Trading below all major moving averages.
RELATED: Patterns to Profits: Training Course

Sectors to Watch Today

Massive rally in Real Estate, with a good chance it retests its all-time highs again. Utilities continues to impress with a close near its all-time highs. The biggest story is Technology and how well it has held up this week despite market weakness. It is in a good position to finish positive on the week, and establish a higher-low and higher-high in the short-term.

My Market Sentiment

The market went from doom and gloom yesterday to a near-miraculous 80 point reversal on SPX. Yesterday had all the hallmarks of capitulation: eye-opening losses early on, heavy selling, breadth 19:1 on SPX in favor of the bears, hard bounce in the afternoon, when all seemed lost.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Current Stock Trading Portfolio Balance

1 Long position.

Recent Stock Trades - See My Past Performance Here.

Swing-Trading Strategy Report #340

: Ryan Mallory; 06 December 2018

My Swing Trading Approach

I closed out my long position in SPXU (3:1 SPX short ETF) on Tuesday afternoon for a 6.3% profit. Sure, it'd be nice to still have it today, with the market gapping much lower, but after a 90 point sell-off on Tuesday, and a day-off in between, I had no desire to risk those profits on a potential gap higher the following day that wipes out half my profits. Nonetheless, I'm 100% cash here today and I'm totally fine with that. I'm not overly interested in shorting this market at the open when SPX has already dropped over 130 points in two trading sessions combined, but will consider a long position, if we can see the market flush lower, and put in an emotional bottom.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - VIX popped a whopping 26% on Tuesday while holding the 50-day moving average. Still no 'higher-high' in place, but would need to move over 23.81 in order to do so which is the area it is flirting with at today's open.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): A 36% drop yesterday is very concerning as it takes the indicator back down to 31%. It would be a grave concern for the bulls if it loses 22 level going forward.
Moving averages (SPX): Just a day after breaking through the 50 and 200-day MA's, to the upside, Tuesday saw it lose both, along with the 5, 10 and 20-day moving averages and now trades below all the major moving averages. Certainly not an everyday occurrence.
RELATED: Patterns to Profits: Training Course

Sectors to Watch Today

Utilities are back to being the favorite of the market as risk-off is the name of the game. Technology did much better in relation to the other sectors, which isn't what you'd expect in a broad-based sell-off. I doubt that lasts, should the selling continue. Energy looks ready to test its lows again. This sector never really bounced. Financials showing signs of a total meltdown and Industrials looks like it may be ready to break below the November lows.

My Market Sentiment

The November lows look to get tested here. An extremely choppy area for the market going back to October 11th. Far from being oversold, this market has a lot of room to the downside here, and could get downright ugly if October lows do not ultimately hold.