Swing-Trading Recap #561

: Ryan Mallory; 21 November 2019

My Swing Trades

I booked a +3% Profit in NextEra Energy (NEE). I also jump into to Catepillar (CAT) and quickly got out at the close for a 0.1% profit, as I decided not to take the position overnight with the market selling off into the close. I may actually regret not taking that position overnight, but unless the market gaps substantially higher tomorrow morning, I may have a very good opportunity to get back in at or below where I sold it at today. Going into tomorrow, I will need to see how the futures perform. If the market decides to continue its selling, I will add some short exposure with a tight leash. If we bounce, I will look to add 1-2 new long positions early on. Either way, I expect to be more active in the market than I have of late.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - VIX jumped 2.7% today. Not a ton, but better price action than what has been seen of late. However, the index continued to fade with lower-lows and lower-highs all day long.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): This indicator is completely falling apart here. It is now trading 5.5% lower today, and down to 51%. More amazing, it is down 11 of the last 13 days. This deeply concerns me for this market, because stocks under the surface are not holding up well.
Moving averages (SPX): Closed below the 5-day moving average for the second day in a row (unheard of these days!), but more importantly has closed below 0.19 below the 10-day moving average, the first time since October 9th. Now, it was only fractionally, lower, so it wasn't an overly convincing break.
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Swing-Trading Recap #560

: Ryan Mallory; 18 November 2019

My Swing Trades

I didn't take any trades today, but managed to scalp a little $ROKU on the way up in the morning, but that was about it. Still holding one long and one short position as swing-trades. At this point, any new long position in a growth stock is a high risk trade, because the upside reward at this stage of the rally will be limited in comparison to its downside risk.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - A very promising start for the index today, but as is always the case (literally for the last 15 trading sessions) the index sells off hard from its highs of the day. Today was no different. Yes, a lot of people short the VIX pops, and yes, a lot of people will ultimately get burned by this practice.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): Breadth really sucked for the market yet again today. Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this rally, and you are seeing a lot more people putting money into the higher beta stocks to get bigger returns. Current reading of T2108 is 58%, after falling 4% today.
Moving averages (SPX): Trading above all major moving averages for the 21st straight day (including 5-day MA).
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Swing-Trading Recap #559

: Ryan Mallory; 13 November 2019

My Swing Trades

I added one new trade to the long side, while keeping my sole short position in the portfolio, and also dumping NUE for a -1% loss, soon after the open. With the market still buying the dips at every turn, but only enough to get the market back to break even, it makes it hard to be overly bearish, and while we keep making new all-time highs, those highs are only fractionally higher. More than anything the market is coiling over the last eight trading sessions, waiting to make its next move.

Indicators

Volatility Index (VIX) - The Chinese trade news instantly shot the VIX up to 13.90, but ultimately brought it back down to 13-flat, for only a 2.5% move. Still compressed, and with the tight coiling at these lows, sets the market up for a volatility event.
T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average): I keep hounding about this, but I find this whole matter quite astounding that the number of stocks that are participating in in the market rally has declined for more than two weeks, the indices have been rising during that same time.
Moving averages (SPX): Trading above all major moving averages.
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