• SP 500 Market Analysis 6-16-15

Technical Outlook:

  • Yesterday wasn’t marked by the fact that the bears push the market lower as much as it was about the fact it could not break 2072 on SPX yet again.
  • Immediately upon testing 2072, the dip buyers came right in and popped the market off the lows and erased over half the day’s losses. 
  • I would have liked to of held my SDS trade longer, but with the dip buyers coming in yesteday, it looked far too possible for another rally today like we saw last Wednesday. 
  • Had SPX managed to close below 2072, it would have confirmed the head and shoulders pattern, and I would have become much more aggressive in my trading in that direction. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart shows a very orderly downtrend in place over the last three days with well defined lower-highs and lower-lows. 
  • VIX never broke down yesterday even with the dip buying. It managed to get back above the downtrend off of the October highs by finishing 11.7% higher at 15.39. But short term resistance on VIX remains at 15.64.
  • RUT still channeling higher off of the May lows. Impressive rebound off of the lows of the day yesterday. 
  • Greece continues to dominate the headlines and still the major mover of the market. Nothing is getting resolved but usually politicians find a short-term fix so they can insure their own re-election. No matter how ill-advised the agreement might be. 
  • SPY volume continues to remain escalated. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

  • Sold SDS yesterday at 20.68 for a 2.3% gain. 
  • Did not add any new positions yesterday. 
  • 10% short / 90% cash. 
  • Remain short XYL at 36.16.
  • I’ll consider adding 1-2 new short position to the portfolio today, but price really needs to break below  2072. 
  • Also willing to play the bounce with a 3x ETF to the upside. 
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 6-16-15

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