Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.4% lower. 
  • European markets are trading 1.5% lower.
  • US futures are trading 1.1% lower ahead of the market open. 


Economic reports due out (all times are eastern):
Jobless Claims (8:30) Wholesale Trade (10), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Heavy gap down at the open today after the market responded well yesterday to the Fed Minutes. 
  • We are seeing headline risk creep back into the market today with Portugal bank problems. 
  • Strong possibility of testing the trend-line off of the April lows today at 1943. 
  • Often times with heavy gap downs, the lows are put in during the first 30 minutes of trading, allowing for dip-buyers to come in and lift the market off of the lows. 
  • I wouldn’t suggest shorting stocks this morning simply because the market is down. If you weren’t short prior to yesterday, then you are chasing the market today. 
  • SPX hasn’t seen a move of more than 1% in either direction since April. Very good chance that it might see that today. 
  • SPX will break the 10-day and 20-day moving averages immediately at the open. 
  • Watch for a break of 1944 which would establish a new lower-low for SPX today. 
  • Everything hinges on the close today and where price stands at that point. 
  • The market doesn’t care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving it. The market only cares about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up. 


My Trades:

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-10-14

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